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Mm... I sense something in the way you asked
questions.
But first of all, your math is not good. To get
126% this year, I only need another 80%. (1.26 * 1.80 = 2.26).
Secondly I didn't state that I expect 126% this
year. I only said I got 126% average for the last 3 years. In fact, I have no
expectation and make no prediction. I just follow my system. Be it -20% or
250%, as long as it is consistent with my system, I would accept what the market
gives me.
And finally as Ari Kiev pointed out, if you believe
it is impossible, of course, it is impossible to you.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:37
PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made
any money???
Mark,
So you are up so far
26% this year
I take it you expect
to be up another 100% or so to make that 126%
annret?
Mark
Yes. It is some trend indicators
based on major market indexes. Use Foreign functions.
26% is based on current equity and
start equity of this year. I mentioned "after DD" since the
system is currently experiencing a DD.
There is a trick I can share with
you: compare your system equity curve with the curve of market-based
indicators, you may be able to find some correlation to improve your system by
using some market-based rules to stay out of market or use higher
leverage.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:45 PM
Subject: RE:
[amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Thanks. You
said your system is mechanical. Was the "out of the market" decision
mechanical? If so, mind telling what method you used? Also, what
do you mean by "Up 26% this year
(after DD)"?
d
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mark H
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:42
PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody
made any money???
Mostly out of the market in
the last 30 days due to market conditions.
Current DD 20%, incurred the
week before the 10+ days crash (no trades during the crash). Up 26% this
year (after DD).
I found that if I put in more
rules to reduce the DD, it would greatly reduce
returns.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 11:24 AM
Subject: RE:
[amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
How have you
done in the last 30 days?
d
From:
[email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 10:15
PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
Of course, it is
self-evident that nobody can get 100% every year otherwise he would
own the whole world in less than 50 years starting with
$100.
That's not the point. The
point is when you are small, you should strive for high returns with
reasonable drawdowns. Then when you get to a few millions or higher,
you should diversify your investments/systems and get lower but steady
returns. That's the goal for many individual traders if they don't
want to manage other
people's money.
As I read, many top
traders were able to get 50-500% for 5-10 years when they
started out. When you are big, it is hard to get high returns since
your moving in/out of the market causes adverse price
movements.
Richard Dennis didn't blow
his own bankroll. He blew half of the fund he managed in 1987 because
he violated his own principles which he taught to the turtles. He
stopped managing fund for a few years until 1994, when he started
Dennis Trading Group. He was and still is a very wealthy
man.
----- Original Message
-----
Sent:
Monday, June 19, 2006 9:16 PM
Subject:
Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any
money???
Hi Mark,
Glad to hear you don't bet
the farm. ^_^
I was trading probably before the 'Wizard'
writers were out of high
school.
And I believe Richard
Dennis, whose successes were kind of the
inspiration for those
books, eventually tapped out, as in blew the
whole bankroll.
Pardon me if I have that wrong.
Nobody gets those returns
consistently, and the basic reason behind
that statement being
clearly true should be obvious: The geometrical
growth of the
money would soon have such a successful trader with
such a large
amount of capital that percentage return gets
progressively more
and more difficult to keep in the stratosphere.
Eventually,
position sizes become a problem because of market
liquidity. Or
did you harken onto the grail? ^_-
Look at Warren Buffet's
problem ... too much cash, not enough
qualifying opportunities.
And he's not even a trader.
Of course, you could be talking
un-compounded. But I still have
serious doubts about
sustainability.
I stand by my statement that outsized
returns, particularly the
super-jumbo outsized, require outsized
risk. I haven't seen any
cases in which that risk didn't
ultimately pose a problem. And I
also stand by my opinion that
percentage returns in that league are
unsustainable. If they were
not, a very few managers would be
managing most of the world's
capital. But that is not the case.
Yuki
Tuesday, June
20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM, you wrote:
MH> Yuki:
MH>
Thanks for your kind warning. However, you got it wrong. I am
trading a strict mechanical system including position sizing
algorithm. So "bet it all" is not applicable here. There were no
big
bets and no big wins either. Just small bets and small
wins/losses, and a lot of them. Since you stated "nobody gets those
kind of returns", I would recommend that you read a few of
those
wizards/hitters books to get some inspiration.
MH>
Good trading,
MH> - Mark
H
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