Hi Tom Tom: Yes, an interesting article. I was particularly intrigued by this line:
"technical analysis has not been validated in controlled studies " Is there any evidence that what we are trying to do might ever work? How could we prove that it does? chuck ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Tom" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Friday, December 01, 2006 5:12 PM Subject: [amibroker] Random Walk - step 2 - : Predicitable ? > To go on dicussion about random walk, nice article at the middle of this > page : > > http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/411georw.htm > > Combine: Random Walk and Prediction. > Technical analysis... usefull ? Financial information ... usefull ? Even > illegal information (hidden to public) .. usefull ? Last one maybe. > Others, > humm.... > This is what about deals this article. > > For me, next theory could be a Chaotic Fractal Near-Random Walk... : )) > Chaotic : because spurious peak in the data wich can initiate further > mouvment > Fractal : year, month, day, hour, minute, sec... same patterns > Near-Random Walk : Random Walk but predictable, because i don't think > price > move randomly... > If they move randomly... tehnical or fundamental analysis are useless, so > there is no mean to try to trade at all, (only to give commission to the > broker héhé). > > Seriously, from this article, what seems emerging from last years, is that > price is random walk, but volatility maybe not... It is well explained in > the article. Arch and Garch model are mentionned. > Someone try this on AB ? Trade based only about volatility prediction (so > predict risk, and manage portfolio depending those prediction about > volatility)... and so don't bother with the price random-walk ? > > > Cheers, > Mich > > _________________________________________________________________ > Les révélations de la starac 6 commentées par Jérémy! > http://starac2006.spaces.live.com/ > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > For other support material please check also: > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > >
