Ton,
Sorry, no adequate statistics .... as I indicated I really do not trade stocks
... The little that I did, I did manage 1% a few times. The issue as I see it,
is stock selection. My beleif is just that.... fully appreciate that stocks
will sometimes move a lot .... other times they will not .... a computerized
tracking can facilitate the selection... and provide ability to trade in a
timely manner.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ton Sieverding
To: [email protected]
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 1:30 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
Do you have any trading statistics showing me that 1% a day is doable Ara ?
Of course I would like to see a 100% automated trading result to avoid all
kinds of emotional trading parties. And to get 'some' confidence from a
statistical point of view at least 100 trades ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ara Kaloustian
To: [email protected]
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 11:54 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
1% a day, I feel is quite doable!!!
I say this because of my emini day trading... where trading the NQ I could
make $300 to $1500 a day, depending on trading activity and market conditions,
trading with a $50K account, on a "regular basis".... and it was not too
difficult. Granted NQ had a 20:1 leverage! I feel that on average $1000 a day
is quite reasonable with a small account trading the NQ. When opprtunity
presents itself and the full capital of $50K is used a 10% return is possible.
Taking all things into account, 1% / day is not too unreasonable for stocks
with some volatility. Granted one will have to be focuced and have a good
system.
With the very minimum stock day trading I have done, finding and catching
the significant moves if difficult.
I must admit, my bottom line is nothing to envy ... I found that I make
inexcusable emotional mistakes, that are very costly... Further, being
available to trade and in a good frame of mind is not always possible, so at
best 50% efficiency is probably possible ... and then no silly mistakes allowed.
I do have a couple of friends who do trade the NQ pretty much full time ...
and do quite well .... and obviously have a temperment better than mine for day
trading... so good returns are reasonable on a consistent basis!!!
I am optomistic about autotrading because it removes the subjective and
emotional components of one's trading, so a decent system that incorporates
good money management and recognizes poor / good trading environment can
produce a significant return.
A good autotrade program used with a leveraged vehicle obviously has a huge
potential...
So keep the faith ... and be careful! It will work out.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
From: Ton Sieverding
To: [email protected]
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 12:35 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
Herman thanks for your short resume of the Trading world. Just a simple
question. Do you really believe that group number 1 exists ? So Traders that do
generate with a minimum of code on a consistent basis a daily return of 2,5%
without losing their pants on a terrible outlier or drawdown that will take
them out of business ? My experience is that only a very small group of about
5% of the '2,5%+ return Day Traders' is reaching for a relatively short period
of time the above target ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
From: Herman
To: Howard B
Cc: [email protected]
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 2:08 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is great fun to
read
It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so oblivious to
each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of traders (ignoring the many
types in between):
1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small lots of 100
shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a day, easily making up to a
few percent on good days, using an automated trading system.
2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade and must
roll over millions of dollars trading for others, making, if they are lucky a
few percent/month.
We have both of these traders on this list but really they should have
their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and AmiBroker-Skinny their expectations
are not and cannot be the same.
In the first category volumes, market trends, market analysis,
traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system design. Their systems can be
extremely simple and their trading rules may be expressed using only half a
dozen lines of code while their automation code may easily exceed 1000 lines.
Their trading screen may only display a lists of tickers with order status: no
charts. They work hard to design and optimize code for maximum execution speed
so that to can get their orders placed before the next quote comes in - speed
translates in profits and 20-40 mSec execution is typical.
Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they thrive on
traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts, perhaps totalling 1000s of
lines of code. Their automation code, if they use it, may just be a a hundred
lines long and aims to save them some typing - not to catch a trade. They use
old (10-20 years!) techniques and statistical analysis that are rehashed over
and over, they thrive on sophisticated analysis to squeeze out a fraction of a
percent more per month (or reduce awful DDs). Code can be bloated with cosmetic
stuff and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to execute.
Traders from both categories ought to respect each others.
best regards,
herman
Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
>
Hi Dennis --
Averages 2.5% per day!?
That same $1,000 starting account becomes $294,000,000 in two
years.
(1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
Please pass my email address on to your friend who gets 2.5% per
day. howardbandy at gmail.com I have contacts who will reward him handsomely.
When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to $1,000,000 in one year and
became famous for it, that required a return of 1.84% per day. 2.5% per day
turns $10,000 to $5,039,800 in one year.
Help me understand -- Assume I can average 1% per day on, say,
$100,000. Every month, I start with $100,000 and make $24,471 on that
$100,000. Why would I pull my $24,471 profits out so that they can make 1% for
the next month instead of continuing to trade them and making 24% for the next
month?
And, yes, trading in size affects the market. But if your friend
is trading several times per day in markets with high liquidity and narrow
bid-asked spreads, then $1,000,000 is still small size. QQQQ and IWM each
regularly trade $5 billion dollars a day -- $1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of
trading.
Pardon my skepticism --
Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I know of more than one 1% per day method, but of course it
will not work to compound. That is not the way a true trader does it. I know
a trader who averages 2.5% per day on about 5 trades per day on one ETF, and
holds no position overnight. He pulls his profits out and lives on them or
puts them to work in longer term investments. High rates of return only work
for small investments and usually require a lot of personal attention and
pattern recognition during the day. If it worked for large sums, or easy
computer algorithms, the big boys (or hoards) would work that angle to death
and the edge would get neutralized. Once you try to increase position sizes
above a certain amount, you start to influence the market and you have no one
to play against --it takes two to have a market. That is why large mutual
funds must look to a fundamental value model. They can not trade the
technicals quick enough without killing the market. A true trader will just
work the market technicals to pull out a small amount of money at a consistent
rate (no home runs). Over time, the results add up to a decent living.
Dennis
On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM, Howard B wrote:
One percent a day. Yeah, right.
Compound one percent a day for five years and a $1,000
trading account becomes $278,000,000. Start with real money and own Manhattan.
(1.01) ^ 1260 = 278,567
Howard
On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
T-ohrt - the thing you are missing is not your technical
ability, but
your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE to new things.
You seem to mistrust my recommendation when in fact you
nothing of
me, my level of trading knowledge, this system or my
involvement with
it (my involvement is none other than my affiliate link -
just to
make that entirely clear).
If you believe that 1% a month is all that is possible,
that will be
your reality, and you will discount ideas that make more as
trickery.
If you want trade lists, further explanations on the system
I
recommended - discuss it with David, the author. It is not
my job to
divulge a system that someone else owns.
However, I will say that David's system is very credible
and also
very simple. I have recieved a lot of support from David
and his
system opened my eyes to swing trading.
I also know of an individual who makes 1% A DAY - and
publishes all
his methods and indicators for free, online.
Look for The Rumpled One at:
www.kreslik.com.
I am currently porting his work over to Amibroker on that
site.
And yes, once again - it is all FREE, and you definately
won't find
it in your "Beyond Technical Analysis" book.
AC
