That's even better. So no real but only emotional risk. No draw downs and a 100% winning system. Come on Ara, you must know what I am talking about. Just the standard risk ratio's you can find in the AB backtest report also. Of course I can try the IB trading simulator but it's always nice to get the real world risk ratio's before doing the swimming myself ...
Regards, Ton. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ara Kaloustian To: [email protected] Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 4:23 PM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? Ton, Trading the NQ, as I indicated before, 1% is quite easy... and the risk is entirely "in your head". My friends who day trade it have been doing very very well for over a year, with very few losing trades. My track record is not so hot because I made large and inexcusable errors, that had nothing to do with my system. I don't mean to imply its easy work. In fact it is hard work .... It takes a lot of discipline and focus. So if you have a good system and keep your losses down, you can do very well! You might try the IB simulated trading for a while to get used to it. Ara ----- Original Message ----- From: Ton Sieverding To: [email protected] Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 1:29 AM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? Well I am talking about trading the Nasdaq100 Futures. Since you "feel that 1% a day is doable", you should have statistical stuff to show the probability of your return ... Also 1% a day is great but at what risk etc. ... Regards, Ton. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ara Kaloustian To: [email protected] Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 5:51 PM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? Ton, Sorry, no adequate statistics .... as I indicated I really do not trade stocks ... The little that I did, I did manage 1% a few times. The issue as I see it, is stock selection. My beleif is just that.... fully appreciate that stocks will sometimes move a lot .... other times they will not .... a computerized tracking can facilitate the selection... and provide ability to trade in a timely manner. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ton Sieverding To: [email protected] Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 1:30 AM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? Do you have any trading statistics showing me that 1% a day is doable Ara ? Of course I would like to see a 100% automated trading result to avoid all kinds of emotional trading parties. And to get 'some' confidence from a statistical point of view at least 100 trades ... Regards, Ton. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ara Kaloustian To: [email protected] Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 11:54 PM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? 1% a day, I feel is quite doable!!! I say this because of my emini day trading... where trading the NQ I could make $300 to $1500 a day, depending on trading activity and market conditions, trading with a $50K account, on a "regular basis".... and it was not too difficult. Granted NQ had a 20:1 leverage! I feel that on average $1000 a day is quite reasonable with a small account trading the NQ. When opprtunity presents itself and the full capital of $50K is used a 10% return is possible. Taking all things into account, 1% / day is not too unreasonable for stocks with some volatility. Granted one will have to be focuced and have a good system. With the very minimum stock day trading I have done, finding and catching the significant moves if difficult. I must admit, my bottom line is nothing to envy ... I found that I make inexcusable emotional mistakes, that are very costly... Further, being available to trade and in a good frame of mind is not always possible, so at best 50% efficiency is probably possible ... and then no silly mistakes allowed. I do have a couple of friends who do trade the NQ pretty much full time ... and do quite well .... and obviously have a temperment better than mine for day trading... so good returns are reasonable on a consistent basis!!! I am optomistic about autotrading because it removes the subjective and emotional components of one's trading, so a decent system that incorporates good money management and recognizes poor / good trading environment can produce a significant return. A good autotrade program used with a leveraged vehicle obviously has a huge potential... So keep the faith ... and be careful! It will work out. Ara ----- Original Message ----- From: Ton Sieverding To: [email protected] Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 12:35 AM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? Herman thanks for your short resume of the Trading world. Just a simple question. Do you really believe that group number 1 exists ? So Traders that do generate with a minimum of code on a consistent basis a daily return of 2,5% without losing their pants on a terrible outlier or drawdown that will take them out of business ? My experience is that only a very small group of about 5% of the '2,5%+ return Day Traders' is reaching for a relatively short period of time the above target ... Regards, Ton. ----- Original Message ----- From: Herman To: Howard B Cc: [email protected] Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 2:08 AM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for Swing Trading? Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is great fun to read It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so oblivious to each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of traders (ignoring the many types in between): 1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small lots of 100 shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a day, easily making up to a few percent on good days, using an automated trading system. 2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade and must roll over millions of dollars trading for others, making, if they are lucky a few percent/month. We have both of these traders on this list but really they should have their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and AmiBroker-Skinny their expectations are not and cannot be the same. In the first category volumes, market trends, market analysis, traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system design. Their systems can be extremely simple and their trading rules may be expressed using only half a dozen lines of code while their automation code may easily exceed 1000 lines. Their trading screen may only display a lists of tickers with order status: no charts. They work hard to design and optimize code for maximum execution speed so that to can get their orders placed before the next quote comes in - speed translates in profits and 20-40 mSec execution is typical. Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they thrive on traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts, perhaps totalling 1000s of lines of code. Their automation code, if they use it, may just be a a hundred lines long and aims to save them some typing - not to catch a trade. They use old (10-20 years!) techniques and statistical analysis that are rehashed over and over, they thrive on sophisticated analysis to squeeze out a fraction of a percent more per month (or reduce awful DDs). Code can be bloated with cosmetic stuff and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to execute. Traders from both categories ought to respect each others. best regards, herman Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote: > Hi Dennis -- Averages 2.5% per day!? That same $1,000 starting account becomes $294,000,000 in two years. (1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558 Please pass my email address on to your friend who gets 2.5% per day. howardbandy at gmail.com I have contacts who will reward him handsomely. When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to $1,000,000 in one year and became famous for it, that required a return of 1.84% per day. 2.5% per day turns $10,000 to $5,039,800 in one year. Help me understand -- Assume I can average 1% per day on, say, $100,000. Every month, I start with $100,000 and make $24,471 on that $100,000. Why would I pull my $24,471 profits out so that they can make 1% for the next month instead of continuing to trade them and making 24% for the next month? And, yes, trading in size affects the market. But if your friend is trading several times per day in markets with high liquidity and narrow bid-asked spreads, then $1,000,000 is still small size. QQQQ and IWM each regularly trade $5 billion dollars a day -- $1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of trading. Pardon my skepticism -- Thanks, Howard www.quantitativetradingsystems.com On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: I know of more than one 1% per day method, but of course it will not work to compound. That is not the way a true trader does it. I know a trader who averages 2.5% per day on about 5 trades per day on one ETF, and holds no position overnight. He pulls his profits out and lives on them or puts them to work in longer term investments. High rates of return only work for small investments and usually require a lot of personal attention and pattern recognition during the day. If it worked for large sums, or easy computer algorithms, the big boys (or hoards) would work that angle to death and the edge would get neutralized. Once you try to increase position sizes above a certain amount, you start to influence the market and you have no one to play against --it takes two to have a market. That is why large mutual funds must look to a fundamental value model. They can not trade the technicals quick enough without killing the market. A true trader will just work the market technicals to pull out a small amount of money at a consistent rate (no home runs). Over time, the results add up to a decent living. Dennis On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM, Howard B wrote: One percent a day. Yeah, right. Compound one percent a day for five years and a $1,000 trading account becomes $278,000,000. Start with real money and own Manhattan. (1.01) ^ 1260 = 278,567 Howard On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: T-ohrt - the thing you are missing is not your technical ability, but your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE to new things. You seem to mistrust my recommendation when in fact you nothing of me, my level of trading knowledge, this system or my involvement with it (my involvement is none other than my affiliate link - just to make that entirely clear). If you believe that 1% a month is all that is possible, that will be your reality, and you will discount ideas that make more as trickery. If you want trade lists, further explanations on the system I recommended - discuss it with David, the author. It is not my job to divulge a system that someone else owns. However, I will say that David's system is very credible and also very simple. I have recieved a lot of support from David and his system opened my eyes to swing trading. I also know of an individual who makes 1% A DAY - and publishes all his methods and indicators for free, online. Look for The Rumpled One at: www.kreslik.com. I am currently porting his work over to Amibroker on that site. And yes, once again - it is all FREE, and you definately won't find it in your "Beyond Technical Analysis" book. AC
