> Just a completely naive question here. If one could make 300-400% >a year, > why would he still be here on the internet helping others and >trying to make > his program better.
That is a fair question. I might be crazy. Most of the AB users who are doing > 50% aren't talking about it. They don't talk because it affects their trading (focus). Most traders are very secretive. Some think that trading the edge, erodes the edge. Others think that they could put their trading systems and secrets in the Washington Post and it wouldn't effect their bottom line in the slightest. I am not doing 300%+ (if you don't talk me out if it I might do it). I am talking far too much, at my own expense. I might stop today because really, negativity is so subtle and I can't accomodate it at all. IMO the only way to approach trading is to make careful observations on market behaviour and not have pre-conceived ideas on how it should work. If you make those observations, fearlessly (not worrying about what the neighbours will think or say) then you will see that triple figures are the potential. Having identified the potential then I ask myself "How can I capture 100% of that" - that is how I am teaching myself to trade and driving up the returns beyond what I first imagined were possible. Only a handful of 'would be' traders will make it. Do you want me to sell YOU short by speaking to you as if you are not one of them? Do you want me to patronise you, withold the truth or keep the truth to myself? Why do I do it? I get carried away. It is a philosphical point (new age stuff about whether we are wealthy if and when we are witholding information that is useful to others - what is wealth? - do you think I should sell my original ideas?) My wife doesn't want me to give away my trading secrets and she is not happy about the time I spend writing for the UKB and talking in the forum. I would dishonour myself, and my teachers teachers, if I didn't act according to the principles that I embody. I don't have a house by the lake. If you make it you won't end up buying Canada either. You are not greedy etc. You will be easily satisfied and get bored with trading and simply slow down or stop - at a certain point. Anyway, as a couple of us already said - you can't keep compounding and make those returns (if you could the corps would be doing it) - you have to cap your account at a limit to sustain a reasonable life style and do something besides sitting at the screen). brian_z --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com, "Louis Préfontaine" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Hi Brian, > > Just a completely naive question here. If one could make 300-400% a year, > why would he still be here on the internet helping others and trying to make > his program better. 300-400% a year would allow me to buy the Montreal > Canadiens in ten years! I would be as rich as Bill Gates in 20-25 years. I > could even pay tons of programmers all for myself at that point. > > Do you understand what I mean? I do not say that I don't believe it is > possible, but I am very skeptical about this because personnaly at 300-400% > I would pay someone to do the trades and I would sit tight on the beach > somewhere far from the shitty white cold stuff all around here in Montréal! > Hehe! ;-) > > I will try to keep my eyes open and watch for the gold. But my objectives > are far less than that. If I could make 35% a year (conpounded) I would be > more than happy. (My gf brother-in-law is making that and he has a nice > home in front of a beautiful lake and has three kids, two cars, and he seems > more than happy with that!) > > Louis > > p.s. Of course I would not reject the idea of getting richer than that. If > sky is to be the limit, then bring me there! > > 2008/2/26, brian_z111 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > > > Thanks, > > > > I am still developing after approx 4 years so 300-400 is a tentative > > figure (I didn't pluck it out of thin air - it forced itself upon me > > by observation). For that reason this is 'newish' thinking for me so > > your comments are a perfect help for me to foramlise my thinking on > > the subject. > > > > Thanks for posting. > > > > Obviously I am getting to the point where I am going out on a limb, > > relative to other traders, so confirmation from 1-2 other traders is > > all I need to accept that I am not going up a dead end gully. > > > > > > brian_z > > > > --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, Dennis > > Brown <see3d@> wrote: > > > > > > Brian, > > > > > > Points taken --though, I have a goal of 500% average in my trading > > > simulations. I also have a theoretical trading mode for how good > > the > > > entries are with perfect exits and how good the exits are with > > perfect > > > entries. That gives me a real good idea about what my upper limit > > > is. It also lets me explore the profit potential of different > > > timeframes so I can focus on the best ones for my trading style. > > It > > > is good to know what can be achieved so you know when you have > > arrived. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > Dennis > > > > > > > > > On Feb 26, 2008, at 5:18 PM, brian_z111 wrote: > > > > > > > Dennis, > > > > > > > >> No need to argue the point. > > > > > > > > I believe there is a need to argue the point because negative > > > > comments from other traders affect the way we trade and shouldn't > > go > > > > unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by objective > > > > evidence. > > > > > > > > I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical upper > > limit, > > > > because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we are not > > aiming > > > > high enough and need to make a mental adjustment. > > > > > > > >> Everyone is right, depending on the > > > >> particular circumstances. > > > > > > > > No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances. > > > > To be 'right' means that our observations can be independently > > > > verified by others. > > > > > > > > If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self- delusion. > > > > > > > > I agree with your points 100%. > > > > > > > > Thnakyou very much for posting them. > > > > > > > > brian_z > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com <amibroker% 40yahoogroups.com>, Dennis > > Brown <see3d@> wrote: > > > >> > > > >> No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending on the > > > >> particular circumstances. > > > >> > > > >> As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day > > average) > > > > are > > > >> being made by some traders I know using hardly more than a ruler > > > > for > > > >> their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance levels > > > > on > > > >> very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps a couple > > > > of > > > >> indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and that the > > > >> winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and used to > > > > live > > > >> on, or put into more conservative long term positions. The > > market > > > > can > > > >> not support large dollar compounding more than the average of the > > > > long > > > >> term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim large > > % > > > > off > > > >> small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work to your > > > >> advantage. > > > >> > > > >> Dennis > > > >> > > > >> On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote: > > > >> > > > >>> > > > >>> 100% can be made in the early years but as the account grows > > > > returns > > > >>> diminish. > > > >>> > > > >>> Dave > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >>> --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com <amibroker% 40yahoogroups.com>, > > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> > > > > wrote: > > > >>>> > > > >>>> > > > >>>>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast that > > > > the > > > >>>>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in the US > > in > > > > just > > > >>>>> a few years. > > > >>>> > > > >>>> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect > > > > e.g. if > > > >>>> we put it this way, things look a lot different: > > > >>>> > > > >>>> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average, and > > > >>>> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home in > > San > > > >>>> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area. > > > >>>> > > > >>>> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would > > > >>>> continue to trade after 10 successful years? > > > >>>> > > > >>>> brian_z > > > >>>> > > > >>>> > > > >>>> --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com <amibroker% 40yahoogroups.com>, > > "brian_z111" brian_z111@ > > wrote: > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> I draw your attention to the following article, especially > > item > > > > 3: > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"? > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363 > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark > > Cook. > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we > > fooled > > > > by > > > >>>>> randomness a la Taleb)? > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years > > > > before > > > >>>>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!) > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved > > those > > > >>>>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years for > > > > equities. > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> brian_z > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com <amibroker% 40yahoogroups.com>, > > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> > > > > wrote: > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> Howard, > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40% > > per > > > >>>>> year, > > > >>>>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement. > > > >>>>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I > > > > quoted > > > >>>>> as > > > >>>>>> the theoretical potential. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns of > > > >>>> approx > > > >>>>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple Techno- > > > >>>>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures). > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short and > > > > selective. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less than > > > > half > > > >>>>> an > > > >>>>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing > > > > mechanisms. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any further > > > > efforts > > > >>>>> and > > > >>>>>> simple trade his method. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market > > (due > > > >>>> to > > > >>>>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on average > > > >>>> over > > > >>>>>> longer time periods. > > > >>>>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25% > > > > without > > > >>>>> any > > > >>>>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper Business > > > > 2001 > > > >>>>> the > > > >>>>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart > > > > Walton, > > > >>>>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual > > > > compounded > > > >>>>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during the > > > >>>>> nineties. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and > > > > based > > > >>>>> on > > > >>>>>> verifiable case studies? > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't need > > to > > > > go > > > >>>>> any > > > >>>>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar > > testimonies. > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>>> brian_z > > > >>>>>> > > > >>>>> > > > >>>> > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users > > only. > > > >>> > > > >>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > > > >>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > >>> > > > >>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check > > DEVLOG: > > > >>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > >>> > > > >>> For other support material please check also: > > > >>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > >>> > > > >>> Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >>> > > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. > > > > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > > > > > > For other support material please check also: > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
