Louis, firstly, I agree with brian_z's comments. Secondly, the two systems can work, but each may work better in different market conditions.
But if you are a fully mechanical trader operating one system you cannot adapt to conditions and change your style of trading so that you have a best system for teh current market. At least not without effectively running two or more systems with some well tested rules for which you use in which circumstances and consideration of whether you are over optimizing your system to the back data. Otherwise you simply risk defeating your system by making changes. If you are not a mechanical trader then with experience you may be able to recognise changes in the market and apply different systems to suit. Most importantly, i fthis is not teaching you to suck eggs, try a system that you are interested in and that you think suits you. Back test it and test it trading, but make sure you understand potential draw down and get to understand your real emotional response to possible multiple sequential loses. No point having an apparently good system but you cannot sleep at night or interrupt the system every time you get uncomfortable. There is quite a good chapter or two in Curtis Faith's "Way of the Turtle" that I found best discussed this. But back to brian_z's point, you cannot be successful by asking others what they think will be the best system. Cheers mjp --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Louis, > > As long as you understand I don't deal (intentionally) in the base > human emotions (they have no value to me). > > My philosphical points were addressed 'To Whom It May Concern'. > > People are totally mistaken if they think there is no relevance to > trading in my 'philosphical' post, however few are interested and I > don't have the time to do the subject justice anyway. > > My 'easy' answer to you was c) none of the above, but, IMO the > problem is that you don't have the experience to make the necessary > distinctions for yourself (is it my fault that you are in such a > hurry?). Also, it is not a good thing to 'lift' your trades from > others. People trade best wnen they develop their own systems/styles > etc so that is why I gave you that answer - it is in your best > interests. As well as that, good opinion on this subject abounds in > the forum and the books you have purchased e.g. Howard has given his > opinion on the importance of people choosing their own Objective > Function and the fact that his recommended approach sidelines trading > pyschology, so it is not as if the question went unanswered. (I > understand that my esoteric answers are not to everyones taste, > perhaps not yours, but there are plenty of other people prepared to > give an opinion. > > However that is just my answer - there are another 7000+ people who > can give you any answer they like. > > Cheers, > > brian_z > > > --- In [email protected], "Louis Préfontaine" > <rockprog80@> wrote: > > > > Ok I was naive; I thought I could simply ask and get some easy > answers which > > would get me right on track to get new ideas on how to build a > hourly > > system... > > > > I'll stick around and try to get some piece of wisdom and maybe I > will be > > able to build something with those that will eventually allow me to > build > > the system I want to build! > > > > Louis > > > > > > 2008/3/21, brian_z111 <brian_z111@>: > > > > > > (Subjective) investigations into the 'human condition' have been > > > going on, in parallel with our search for objective truths, as > long > > > as humanity has been around. > > > > > > This body of information has been collected and preserved, by the > > > few, for the benefit of mankind (the many) and consitutes a > SCIENCE > > > to its guardians, adherents and students. > > > > > > From that body of WISDOM two principles can be extracted that are > > > relevant to your comments: > > > > > > holism is universally persistent (all things are made in the > IMAGE of > > > the creator) > > > > > > and, > > > > > > flowing from that, we derive the principle of CORRESPONDENCE > > > (operating principles in one sphere, have their corresponding > > > principle in another)... > > > > > > ...but that is going to far OT. > > > > > > Over to trading (OR how the above relates to trading): > > > > > > Over the long term the bias of the (stock) market is a function of > > > the earnings performance of the component companies. > > > > > > This is skewed by the behaviour of market participants, which > > > introduces randomness to the markets. > > > > > > The shorter the timeframe the more dominant is 'randomness' > (which of > > > course is not true randomness). > > > > > > (If you are interested in the subject of organising principles and > > > holism Carl Jung's work on Psychological Archetypes is a wonderful > > > example of how the universal paradigms play out in the affairs of > > > wo/mankind). > > > > > > brian_z *:-) > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected] <amibroker% > 40yahoogroups.com>, "Ronald > > > Davis" <xokie7@> wrote: > > > > > > > > I maintain the view that algorithms exist in nature, and that > > > people who develop algorighms are only discovering another one of > > > nature's secrets. > > > > > > > > When my son first showed me Amibroker several years ago, I > looked > > > at charts with Stochastics, and RSI, and I became convinced that > > > mother nature has algorithms that can find the central core of > all of > > > that volatility. > > > > > > > > I have yet to discover mother nature's algorighms, but my > attempts > > > have led me to some conclusions. > > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ------ > > > > > > > > My results WERE BEST when I "AVERAGED THE LAST SEVERAL HUNDRED > DAYS > > > OF ACTIVITY" > > > > > > > > and watched the LAST 9 DAYS>of the performance of this average > of > > > hundreds of days. > > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ------ > > > > > > > > My results WERE LESS GOOD when I "AVERAGED OF LAST 9 DAYS OF > > > ACTIVITY" > > > > > > > > and watched the LAST 9 DAYS>of the performance of this average > of > > > only 9 days. > > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > > > > > > Hope this helps someone. Ron D > > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------- > > > ---------------------------- > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: Louis Préfontaine > > > > To: [email protected] <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com> > > > > Sent: Thursday, March 20, 2008 10:25 PM > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Philosophical question > > > > > > > > > > > > Hi group, > > > > > > > > I just began reading Howard Bandy's book (even though I did not > > > finish Aronson's book yet...), and a somehow philosophical > question > > > came to my mind when he speaks about the market's inefficiency and > > > how we must take advantage of it. He talks both about moving > > > averages and breakout, and I was wondering which one of the two > > > techniques do you think is the more promising for such a system? > > > > > > > > I ask this because as far as subjective technical analysis is > > > concerned, I am more used with breakout techniques. But the real > > > inefficiency in breakout techniques comes from time, that is if > one > > > can act quickly enough to make a profit from the sudden change in > > > price. But from my experience it seems to be more difficult with > EOD > > > or hourly data. And it is less profitable for someone (like me) > who > > > is using options, which tend to anticipate the change quicker > than it > > > really happens. > > > > > > > > Moving averages techniques, on the other side, seems a bit > > > mystical to me, and maybe a bit too simple or too « easy ». I > don't > > > know much about them... > > > > > > > > But anyway, my question is: which one of those two techniques do > > > you prefer, or do you use both for entering a trade, or shorting a > > > trade? What can be a good way to trade for someone (like me) who > > > wants to trade hourly data and can't always get the beginning of a > > > breakout? > > > > > > > > Thanks! > > > > > > > > Louis > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
