Steve, Enjoyed your post (I love from the heart stuff - it elevates us above the humdrum).
Yes, there isn't much value in back & forths unless we are clarifying a technical/educative point. I quite liked Teresa writing style (I can relate to the fun and games of the domestics encroaching on the trading office etc) but that is where it ended - once she got into explaining the 'system' I couldn't keep reading - judging it on its merits I don't rate what is there (nothing to do with discussion on things like 'people who can, do and people who can't, teach). I wasn't going to say anything but since you 'came out' I will second your motion: > 3. Systems in the 50-65% winning pct. window come with 1.5 to 2.0 > payoff ratios. > > And, by the way, I'm speaking to the 2-3 ES contract and 1-2 ER2 In my experience so far I agree this is the 'benchmark' - 50/50 W/L and a PayoffRatio of 1.5/1 are the norm and do provide the edge if managed correctly. For high frequency trading this equates to > 30% PA returns, which is the benchmark that others say they use. (I have lightly discussed the reasons why (nominlly) PF == 1 * 1.5 is achievable and why it is the 'target'. In my hearts of hearts I always want to go 70-80% at 1.5, or better but that is a private thing, but I will settle for PF 1.5 - that is still good trading under the right circumstances (of course > 1.5 leads towards four figures PA which, theoretically, I believe is possible and my expectation of myself is to do that). > believing in themselves and learning to trust their own experiences > over what anyone else had to say. Yes, that is what works for me. "Everything starts from personal belief and it is non-negotiable". brian_z --- In [email protected], "scourt2000" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > If you follow the link to its conclusion and find the original author's > website, take a look at her trading stats this week on the ES. She's > got 7 years futures trading experience and she's taking 2 pt stop > losses and half-offs at 1 pt? That's not good. > > With a good edge, you can expect to daytrade the ES with no more than a > 1.50 pt stop loss, a 1.5 to 2.0 payoff ratio and a long-term winning > pct. average of 60%. > > Please, don't ever try and trade the ES with a payoff ratio of 0.50 > unless you can sustain a 70% to 80% long-term winning pct because a > more reasonable 60% winning pct with a 1.5 payoff ratio will make more > gains than a 70%-er with a 0.50 payoff ratio with far less stress > involved. > > Try all the backtesting on ideas you like and you'll see a general > trend in the good edges: > > 1. High winning pcts. come with < 1.0 payoff ratios. > 2. High payoff ratios come with low winning pcts. > 3. Systems in the 50-65% winning pct. window come with 1.5 to 2.0 > payoff ratios. > > And, by the way, I'm speaking to the 2-3 ES contract and 1-2 ER2 > contract traders out there trying to make a living at this, not any of > you who consider yourself big fishes where you play games with > unreasonable stop losses and averaging down in your positions. > > Just be careful of people freely giving you an edge and then turns > around and has a website-for-profit to "teach" you how to be a "market > winner". Because I take one look at her money management, knowing > full well what's doable on daytrading the ES/ER2 for 5 years, and it > becomes obvious why she's got a secondary service to teach. > > Realistically, it takes anywhere from 2 to 4 years to get good > (definition: you make a living just with your trading) at futures > trading, depending upon how messed up your emotional insides were when > you started. Most drop out within 2 years due to bad money management > and continually trading with bad edges because they believed too much > in some other person trying to sell them on their methods instead of > believing in themselves and learning to trust their own experiences > over what anyone else had to say. > > [I'm not into back-and-forths when I speak from the heart like this. I > could be wrong, but after 5 years of facing the ES and ER2 in real- > time, discretionary daytrading, I highly doubt it.] > > --- In [email protected], "bilbo0211" <wjdandreta@> wrote: > > > > > http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/eminis/commentary/favorite_strateg y/ > Eminis-Teresa-Appleton.cfm > > > > I have not back tested it but checked it on a variety of charts and it > > seems to work quite well to get at least a scalp. In a strong trend it > > generates very few signals but intraday strong trends that last all > > day are rare. > > > > If I get time, I will back test it and post the results. > > > > Bill > > >
