Fred, You are right. I have written several systems that will produce a profit when I backtest them. I have one that showed a profit for 50 years trading every stock in the DIA. However, it doesn't work when I backtest it this year. I don't use optimize, but I do make change to get better results. I also agreed that anyone buying a system should get proof that it works and is profitable by getting a statement to prove that it was traded profitably.
Thanks for your comments, Tom ----- Original Message ----- From: Fred Tonetti To: [email protected] Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 9:08 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money? Almost anyone can write a system that can produce 30% CAR in sample . "Entry tests" are better geared to something like . Show me your year end audited brokerage statement for the last 10 years . Everything else is some form of fish story which gets better and better as time goes by . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of brian_z111 Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 8:21 PM To: [email protected] Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money? Dick, Thankyou very much. You have been around a while and must have seen it all and heard it all several times over. I liked the article. I have been over and around this trade many times, but not using those particular indicators. I still learnt 1 or 2 new things and reinforced some others (sometimes you need a fresh view of an old problem to open your eyes to it a bit wider). I agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of "Reality Based Logic". If I was recruiting some upcoming traders, for a trading team, the entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD equities system" (for any mature economy/market), "now explain to me WHY it works". It there isn't an underlying logic, based on market behaviour, then it is probably a statistical fluke. My concern with computer/AT trading is that it is fine when it is a means to an end but it could become counter productive if it becomes an end in itself. I haven't rushed to it because I believe I need to keep looking at the charts to stay in touch with market realities (sometimes trading seems hard but as soon as I look at the charts it is easy again). If I became a computer driven trader I would spend more and more time looking at formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less time chart reading/market watching. Re the trade example in the article. It is based on some of my core trading elements: - it has a trend (trade with the trend) - it has momentum AND in that situation a big countertrend (pullback), with a trend continuation confirmation, performs better than a small pullback + TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a type of contrarian trade - both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the deep pullbacks produce a much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the deeper the better, as long as it doesn't break a key pivot point. I found the SFO and the tradingacademy sites by googling.... thanks once again. brian_z --- In [email protected], "areehoi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Brian. > You have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may find > an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue of SFO > magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia) titled "System > Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll be amazed at > the simplicity of a trading system according to the author. I've > posted it in the files section of the AB Group. > > Dick H > > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote: > > > > Louis, > > > > This could be the longest AB thread ever. > > > > Some wonderful people gave you some wonderful answers. > > > > To help you get some lasting value from it, here is my close. > > > > > > When you started in AB you asked me "can we really make money trading > > and how much" > > > > I told you >50% but that you should aim for >30% to start with, as a > > benchmark. > > Others said that was not possible. > > Since then I have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is > > possible. > > > > Now you are asking the same question again! > > > > (others have now confirmed they ARE doing over 50% but no one else is > > talking about 1000% yet). > > > > > > You asked me where you should start and which approach was better. > > I told you that you should learn in US EOD stocks because it has all > > of the basic elements of trading right there etc > > I said that RT data was a lot harder to handle and not worth the > > trouble to newcomers. > > > > You went to RT and had trouble. > > > > I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of symbols in RT > > (most long term traders narrow down to the indexes, a filtered > > watchlist of stocks, a small semi-permanent list of stocks, Forex or > > Commodities. > > > > You tried to use 100's or 1000's of RT stocks for your first system. > > You had trouble with that. > > > > I told you it would take years. > > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with it. > > > > In this thread I have laid it all out for you (roughly) although I am > > only saying what others have said in different ways, but to close out > > I will briefly summarise/explain what I have said. > > > > Method: > > > > a) isolate the key skills required to trade > > b) practice them repetitively until they become second nature > > c) positively reinforce your trading alter ego by focus, simplicity, > > positive thinking, repetition etc > > > > a) is the reason that so few succeed. > > b) and c) are a piece of cake. > > > > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of trading because the > > subject is so vast and there are so many conflicting opinions AND > > very few, if any, traders who make it will lay it all out for anyone. > > > > All in all it is like going through a library full of books and > > distilling the info down to a single Readers Digest. > > > > The super traders distill it all down to a tablespoon of gold. > > > > This takes a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see the > > wood for the trees. > > > > After years I have got it down to the last pile of books (you can > > easily successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade > > reasonably well if you only make it half way through). > > I only managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive and > > this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read all of the > > books). > > > > So once again, here is my practical advice to you. > > > > Don't take on the whole library - it is overwhelming. > > > > Take on one section. > > > > Start with US EOD trading, no leverage. > > After you learn to get >30% there you can then start to learn > > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single Stock Futures). > > After you learn that then you can quickly and easily learn > > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever you want - the trading world is > > your oyster. > > > > All of the core elements of trading are right there in EOD stocks. > > If you can't find them there then you are not going to make it > > anywhere. > > > > > > Re AutoTrading. > > > > This is like having your car on auto-pilot. > > First you have to have a car. > > Then you have to learn to drive it. > > Then you can say "now I will automate it and put my feet up while it > > drives down the road". > > You don't just decide to learn autodriving before you fulfil the > > first two steps. > > > > > > Why not start with commodities? > > > > because you will be trying to learn trading and leveraging both at > > the same time plus all of the elements of trading are not exposed the > > way they are in stocks (you have the complication of seasonality plus > > you are limited to 20-30 instruments). > > In stocks you get a much better feel for trading with the different > > cap levels, different volatilities, sectors and global relationships > > etc - things you don't see so clearly in other instruments. > > > > > > > > Why not start in RT? > > > > because so much of your time will be taken up with software/hardware > > issues when you should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty of > > time for RT once you can trade). > > Also - once you can trade then trading RT bars is barely any > > different - you can go straight on with it (tick trading is something > > else again - only suitable for people who are right at home with IT > > skills) > > > > Wheh should I learn Money Management? > > > > First you have to get a system that can do >=30% when paper trading > > i.e. it does that live, for a reasonable period (on data you have > > never seen before). > > > > IF YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE UP. > > > > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn the basisc of MM before > > you start to trade with real money (you can improve your MM based on > > your trading experience but you must now the basics before you start. > > > > > > Realistically, only those with above average aptitude are going to be > > able to do that while they are holding down a job (the magnitude of > > the task is pretty big unless you have a mentor, a friend or you have > > the right stuff to skip through it). > > > > All the best with your endeavours, > > > > brian_z > > > > please excuse me if I don't answer any further questions on the > > subject. > > > > --- In [email protected], "Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote: > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or making a > > living > > > with AB and trading? > > > > > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months now and > > didn't find > > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then > > hourly, > > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing seems > > satisfying. > > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems to work. > > > > > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if so, at > > which > > > timeframe and how do you do it? > > > > > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it seems > > even > > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making money with > > > 1-minute? > > > > > > Thanks, > > > > > > Louis > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I am using the free version of SPAMfighter for private users. It has removed 521 spam emails to date. Paying users do not have this message in their emails. 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