Anyone that shows you the results from an 'in sample' backtest has already disqualified themselves from the 'entry tests'... it's such a basic error, they clearly need to go back to their learning.
--- In [email protected], <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Fred, > > You are right. I have written several systems that will produce a profit when I backtest them. I have one that showed a profit for 50 years trading every stock in the DIA. However, it doesn't work when I backtest it this year. I don't use optimize, but I do make change to get better results. I also agreed that anyone buying a system should get proof that it works and is profitable by getting a statement to prove that it was traded profitably. > > Thanks for your comments, > Tom > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Fred Tonetti > To: [email protected] > Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 9:08 PM > Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money? > > > > Almost anyone can write a system that can produce 30% CAR in sample . > > > > "Entry tests" are better geared to something like . Show me your year end audited brokerage statement for the last 10 years . Everything else is some form of fish story which gets better and better as time goes by . > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of brian_z111 > Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 8:21 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money? > > > > Dick, > > Thankyou very much. > > You have been around a while and must have seen it all and heard it > all several times over. > > I liked the article. > > I have been over and around this trade many times, but not using > those particular indicators. > > I still learnt 1 or 2 new things and reinforced some others > (sometimes you need a fresh view of an old problem to open your eyes > to it a bit wider). > > I agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of "Reality > Based Logic". > > If I was recruiting some upcoming traders, for a trading team, the > entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD equities system" (for any > mature economy/market), "now explain to me WHY it works". > > It there isn't an underlying logic, based on market behaviour, then > it is probably a statistical fluke. > > My concern with computer/AT trading is that it is fine when it is a > means to an end but it could become counter productive if it becomes > an end in itself. > > I haven't rushed to it because I believe I need to keep looking at > the charts to stay in touch with market realities (sometimes trading > seems hard but as soon as I look at the charts it is easy again). > > If I became a computer driven trader I would spend more and more time > looking at formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less > time chart reading/market watching. > > Re the trade example in the article. > > It is based on some of my core trading elements: > > - it has a trend (trade with the trend) > - it has momentum > > AND in that situation a big countertrend (pullback), with a trend > continuation confirmation, performs better than a small pullback + > TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a type of contrarian trade - > both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the deep pullbacks produce a > much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the deeper the better, as long as > it doesn't break a key pivot point. > > I found the SFO and the tradingacademy sites by googling.... > > thanks once again. > > brian_z > > --- In [email protected], "areehoi" <areehoi@> wrote: > > > > Brian. > > You have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may > find > > an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue of SFO > > magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia) titled "System > > Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll be amazed at > > the simplicity of a trading system according to the author. I've > > posted it in the files section of the AB Group. > > > > Dick H > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote: > > > > > > Louis, > > > > > > This could be the longest AB thread ever. > > > > > > Some wonderful people gave you some wonderful answers. > > > > > > To help you get some lasting value from it, here is my close. > > > > > > > > > When you started in AB you asked me "can we really make money > trading > > > and how much" > > > > > > I told you >50% but that you should aim for >30% to start with, > as a > > > benchmark. > > > Others said that was not possible. > > > Since then I have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is > > > possible. > > > > > > Now you are asking the same question again! > > > > > > (others have now confirmed they ARE doing over 50% but no one > else is > > > talking about 1000% yet). > > > > > > > > > You asked me where you should start and which approach was better. > > > I told you that you should learn in US EOD stocks because it has > all > > > of the basic elements of trading right there etc > > > I said that RT data was a lot harder to handle and not worth the > > > trouble to newcomers. > > > > > > You went to RT and had trouble. > > > > > > I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of symbols in > RT > > > (most long term traders narrow down to the indexes, a filtered > > > watchlist of stocks, a small semi-permanent list of stocks, Forex > or > > > Commodities. > > > > > > You tried to use 100's or 1000's of RT stocks for your first > system. > > > You had trouble with that. > > > > > > I told you it would take years. > > > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with it. > > > > > > In this thread I have laid it all out for you (roughly) although > I am > > > only saying what others have said in different ways, but to close > out > > > I will briefly summarise/explain what I have said. > > > > > > Method: > > > > > > a) isolate the key skills required to trade > > > b) practice them repetitively until they become second nature > > > c) positively reinforce your trading alter ego by focus, > simplicity, > > > positive thinking, repetition etc > > > > > > a) is the reason that so few succeed. > > > b) and c) are a piece of cake. > > > > > > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of trading because the > > > subject is so vast and there are so many conflicting opinions AND > > > very few, if any, traders who make it will lay it all out for > anyone. > > > > > > All in all it is like going through a library full of books and > > > distilling the info down to a single Readers Digest. > > > > > > The super traders distill it all down to a tablespoon of gold. > > > > > > This takes a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see > the > > > wood for the trees. > > > > > > After years I have got it down to the last pile of books (you can > > > easily successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade > > > reasonably well if you only make it half way through). > > > I only managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive > and > > > this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read all of > the > > > books). > > > > > > So once again, here is my practical advice to you. > > > > > > Don't take on the whole library - it is overwhelming. > > > > > > Take on one section. > > > > > > Start with US EOD trading, no leverage. > > > After you learn to get >30% there you can then start to learn > > > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single Stock Futures). > > > After you learn that then you can quickly and easily learn > > > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever you want - the trading world > is > > > your oyster. > > > > > > All of the core elements of trading are right there in EOD stocks. > > > If you can't find them there then you are not going to make it > > > anywhere. > > > > > > > > > Re AutoTrading. > > > > > > This is like having your car on auto-pilot. > > > First you have to have a car. > > > Then you have to learn to drive it. > > > Then you can say "now I will automate it and put my feet up while > it > > > drives down the road". > > > You don't just decide to learn autodriving before you fulfil the > > > first two steps. > > > > > > > > > Why not start with commodities? > > > > > > because you will be trying to learn trading and leveraging both > at > > > the same time plus all of the elements of trading are not exposed > the > > > way they are in stocks (you have the complication of seasonality > plus > > > you are limited to 20-30 instruments). > > > In stocks you get a much better feel for trading with the > different > > > cap levels, different volatilities, sectors and global > relationships > > > etc - things you don't see so clearly in other instruments. > > > > > > > > > > > > Why not start in RT? > > > > > > because so much of your time will be taken up with > software/hardware > > > issues when you should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty > of > > > time for RT once you can trade). > > > Also - once you can trade then trading RT bars is barely any > > > different - you can go straight on with it (tick trading is > something > > > else again - only suitable for people who are right at home with > IT > > > skills) > > > > > > Wheh should I learn Money Management? > > > > > > First you have to get a system that can do >=30% when paper > trading > > > i.e. it does that live, for a reasonable period (on data you have > > > never seen before). > > > > > > IF YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE UP. > > > > > > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn the basisc of MM > before > > > you start to trade with real money (you can improve your MM based > on > > > your trading experience but you must now the basics before you > start. > > > > > > > > > Realistically, only those with above average aptitude are going > to be > > > able to do that while they are holding down a job (the magnitude > of > > > the task is pretty big unless you have a mentor, a friend or you > have > > > the right stuff to skip through it). > > > > > > All the best with your endeavours, > > > > > > brian_z > > > > > > please excuse me if I don't answer any further questions on the > > > subject. > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote: > > > > > > > > Hi, > > > > > > > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or making > a > > > living > > > > with AB and trading? > > > > > > > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months now and > > > didn't find > > > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then > > > hourly, > > > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing seems > > > satisfying. > > > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems to > work. > > > > > > > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if so, > at > > > which > > > > timeframe and how do you do it? > > > > > > > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it > seems > > > even > > > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making money > with > > > > 1-minute? > > > > > > > > Thanks, > > > > > > > > Louis > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > I am using the free version of SPAMfighter for private users. > It has removed 521 spam emails to date. > Paying users do not have this message in their emails. > Try SPAMfighter for free now! >
