If you do rejoin broken links in Word then you need to postion the cursor at the end and enter enter to reactivate the joined text as a link.
--- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Concluding my speculative piece on the state of the markets and > the 'short selling ban'. > > > Summary: > > The runction on world markets started from the, still influential, US > market. > > The fundamental causes are: > > - US private and corporate debt is at record levels and going up the > chart exponentially. Eventually there has to be a day of reckoning. > Living beyond ones means is a disease of modern culture and the > dominant generations. > > - the balance sheets of some of Americas top 500 were/are pretty > parlous, especially the financials. > > Institutions are selling them down to re-establish their fundamental > value (price discovery as they say)... it takes a while and the > markets tend to overshoot the mark.... better late than never I > suppose. > > The US upsets flowed over to others, especially Europe, because they > are so financially/mentally/emotionally intertwined. > > Small out of the way economies, like Australia, were only affected to > a limited extent but their financials took the hit as well. > > The story, bandied around by the coalition of the financially > willing, is that the markets were victimised by shortsellers/hedge > funds but this is a beat up of WMD proportions ... all for the > benefit of the public. > > 'World leaders' are meeting in NewYork even as we speak... I would > love to be a fly on the wall to see what ends they have in mind. > > Institutions with healthier balance sheets are now looking for > bargains. > > The ban on 'short selling' is a banNOT in the US but looking serious > elsewhere....perhaps the US doesn't really want a ban OR is it a nice > idea that is too difficult to implement OR are they softening us for > draconian restrictions in the future? > > Volatility in the markets continued this week (post ban). > > Volatility is not caused by short selling etc as such - it is an > indicator of market sentiment... the markets are spooked and rather > like a child who has been woken by the sight of a ghost, they will > not go back to sleep, in that bed again, without a good deal of > soothing. > > The markets have very short term memories though. > > Gold is a market sentiment indicator and when sentiment settles down > so will gold. > > 100 seems to be the unofficially agreed new floor for oil???? > If so economies are in for a slow wind-down. > > > Random Evidence: > > 1) Australia - market controlled by hedgers/short sellers? > > - Aus shorting is limited to under 500 stocks/etf's > - only 10% of total shares can be shorted (for approved instruments) > - foreign money can't just flood in and short Aus (it takes time to > move money around/open accounts etc). Regulators can cut off foreign > capital inflow anyway. > - here is a link to current Aus shorts (cumulative). > Post the Sept19 shorts ban the list looks much the same as it did a > week earlier... shorts are still in place so they were long term > hedging OR a part of normal market activities and NOT the result of > short term speculation. > > %'s of shorts relative to shorting limits and total shares are very > low. > > http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt > > 2) Australia - exposure of Aus banks is limited and factored in > already! > > Here is a current article discussing exposure and the fact that Aus > banks have already raised capital ratios well above requirements. > > http://business.theage.com.au/business/anz-doubles-capital-raising- > 20080904-49za.html > > ANZ and NAB are deemed to be the banks with most exposuure and CBA, > WBC with the least... their share prices over the last few months > reflect this. > > However it is old news. > > Link to official market announcements page > enter ANZ > search and > refer to price sensitive PDF's > 16/9/2008 Lehman exposure is minor and 28/07/2008 trading update > (plus earlier price sensitive releases) that discuss > exposure/provisions, cash earnings etc and the fact that forward divs > will be maintained at a forward yield of around 7-8% relative to > current stock price.... the Aus public have already paid for this via > higher margins and fees etc > > 3) US - volatility continues despite short bans. > > GM was heavily sold down yesterday 23/9/2008 by institutions??? and > because of the auto balance sheets ... nothing to do with > speculators???.... price was volatile but volume was half 3 month ave > vol == lack of buyers rather than an excess of naked sellers???? > > Chrysler proits tumble > > http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122217870530867245.html? > mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo > > 4) speculators move to other shorting mechanisms to work around > financial short bans > > link to current CBOE put/call ratio and vols page >> take the top link > > http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx > > put/call ratio late last week was extremely high. > vols on 16-19th inclusive were top 4/5 vols ever. > > 5) the big boys (or girls) are looking for bargains > > examples: > > buffet buys financial survivors > > http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/23/buffett-goldman-banks-markets- > cx_mm_0923buffett.html?partner=yahootix > > Euro banks cash up to buy financials > > http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122220793000968729.html? > mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo > > Once again - copy broken links to Word - use backspace to put them > back together and they are good to go. > > Good trading. > > brian_z > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote: > > > > Link to a summary of international short selling regs: > > > > > http://www.asx.com.au/about/pdf/20080923_update_on_asic_response_to_sh > > ort_selling.pdf > > > > Articles laying out OneChicago's position are worth a look: > > > > http://www.onechicago.com/ > > > > Interesting that the US started it all and UK/Australia ended up > with > > the most restrictive regs. > > > > UK is talking very tough. > > Aus is writing new permanent legislation (to be announced). > > USA is prevaricating? > > > > (to put broken link back together copy to Notepad and use backspace) > > > > brian_z > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote: > > > > > > May you live in interesting times (old Chinese curse?) > > > > > > If we haven't learnt something about trading, from the Freddie, > > > Fannie and Friends affair, we never will. > > > > > > Depending which color shades you wear (I'm speaking as a > freelance > > > trader) - some early speculation: > > > > > > - meetings, between politicians and institutional king makers, > will > > > continue behind closed doors (making or breaking fortunes while > we > > > sleep or take the kids to weekend activities) > > > > > > - short selling bans are not all created equal, of equal length, > > or > > > equally distributed (Aus == total ban justified because of the > > > possibility that a flood of short money looking for a home will > > sink > > > the ship) ... they vary from country to country. > > > > > > - hedge funds are the bad guys (always reassuring to find the man > > in > > > the black hat) > > > > > > - will politicians ever get it right? > > > > > > - agree with Tomasz that backtested systems, in some cases, might > > end > > > up being fit only for the rubbish bin (only if the 'ban' sticks) > > > > > > - they are beating the grass to drive out the snakes (the drums > > will > > > die down soon) .... are they in the right patch? > > > > > > - let's not over react. Get the facts first. What opportunities > > still > > > exist for short selling and how can we play them (paper/TV talk > on > > > this subject is about as entertaining/real as BigBrother)? > > > > > > - IMO the markets have changed in recent times (globalism and the > > > power of speculators) - look out for Global market regulations. > > > > > > - speculators took control of the markets in the dotcom bubble > (for > > > the first time in history?).... once we have tasted forbidden > fruit > > > there is no turning back. > > > > > > - speculators (some of us?) are still around, cashed up and > > > knowledgeable and ready to play (they didn't lose money in the > last > > 6 > > > months they piled it on)... they are not going to go away and > hide > > > under the bed. > > > > > > - speculators will move to new playgrounds (already the first day > > of > > > trade this week showed high volatility in stocks continue, record > > > breaking moves in oil and gold) > > > > > > - a trader can still leverage a lot of stock, buy and then sell. > > > When they sell is the volatility produced any different cf to > > holding > > > the stock and shorting OR just straight out shorting?..... so > > market > > > mechanisms still exist for speculators to 'move the markets' to > > some > > > extent. > > > > > > - will the institutions that play on the short side take this > lying > > > down (exchanges, brokers, funds) e.g. will the options industry > OR > > > the SSF exchange fold up their tents (if all shorting is banned)? > > > > > > - already, in Australia, the monopolistic ASX suffered a > 1% > fall > > in > > > the first day of new trading, (ex the short sell ban) - punters > > > believe the profits of listed exchanges, without the turnover > > created > > > by short selling, will be slashed. > > > > > > - fair playing field? Aus regulators decided to ban all short > > selling > > > in Aus indefinitely, following a weekend ring around with their > > > international mates ..... come Monday morning they had to hastily > > > cancel the first hour of trade (no headline announcements there) > > > after the instutionals quickly got on the phone to the Aus > > regulators > > > to add a few quick patches to suit their needs etc etc > > > > > > - speculators might move over to pounding other non-financial > > targets > > > (GM) > > > > > > - outside the US punters can do naughty things like spread > > > betting ... so far some of the big players are 'regulated' and > > > compliant e.g. IG Markets .... is it possible 'dealers' like this > > > will move outside of regulation and develop exotic shorting > > > alternative (businesses always develop products to meet demand)? > > > > > > Watch this space? > > > > > > Those who made a killing on Gold in the last 6 months - was it > good > > > luck or good management? ... remember what goes up fast > (possessing > > > the quality of momentum) can also come down fast. > > > > > > Did anyone using mechanical/AT systems take a haircut based > > > on 'unprogrammable contextual moves'? > > > > > > > > > brian_z > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > Yuki, > > > > > > > > On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would > > > > love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any) > > > > between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now. > > > > > > > > In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned earlier > > in > > > this thread > > > > > > > > > > http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default > > > .htm > > > > we can find this: > > > > "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...] > > > > Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth > besides > > > deflation, > > > > including massive financial problems in the banking and > corporate > > > sectors and a large overhang of government debt. > > > > private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the > > > monetary policies that have been tried in Japan, > > > > even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese > > > policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies > > > > [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these > > problems, > > > at least not to anything like the same degree" > > > > > > > > Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in > > 2008. > > > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Tomasz Janeczko > > > > amibroker.com > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> > > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > > Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week? > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > > > > > In his post Patrick just added single sentence to > > > > > make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox. > > > > > I can not see anything wrong with that. > > > > > I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning > > > > > that somebody posted something via private channel, > > > > > and nobody complained. > > > > > Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere? > > > > > Thank you in advance and have a good day. > > > > > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > > Tomasz Janeczko > > > > > amibroker.com > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@> > > > > > To: "vlanschot" <[email protected]> > > > > > Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM > > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >> Hi vlanschot, > > > > >> > > > > >> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several > orders > > of > > > > >> magnitude. > > > > >> > > > > >> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last week, > > nor > > > this > > > > >> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side of > my > > > > >> trades. > > > > >> > > > > >> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you > sent a > > > > >> private email -- on a public list. > > > > >> > > > > >> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before you > > > were, and > > > > >> I don't think it has changed that much. > > > > >> > > > > >> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't > attempt > > to > > > get > > > > >> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership here > is > > > > >> probably not the least bit interested to know that you sent > an > > > email > > > > >> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list owner), > the > > > > >> contents of which they will probably never share. > > > > >> > > > > >> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I find > it > > > > >> strange nonetheless. > > > > >> > > > > >> Yuki > > > > >> > > > > >> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote: > > > > >> > > > > >> v> Hi Yuki, > > > > >> > > > > >> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only imagine > > how > > > you > > > > >> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I > > > increasingly feel > > > > >> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of its > > way > > > of > > > > >> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe there > > > have been > > > > >> v> plenty of other references in this group to private > emails, > > > and > > > > >> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a > > > reaction. > > > > >> > > > > >> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding > references > > > which I > > > > >> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can > calm > > > down now. > > > > >> > > > > >> v> PS > > > > >> > > > > >>>> > > > > >>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion. > > > > >>>> > > > > >>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly > illuminative > > > for the > > > > >>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list that > > you > > > sent > > > > >>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are > not > > in > > > > >>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get > subscribers > > to > > > your > > > > >>>> off list messages? > > > > >>>> > > > > >>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm > > beating > > > my > > > > >>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent. > > > > >>>> > > > > >>>> Phooey. > > > > >>>> > > > > >>>> Yuki > > > > >>>> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> ------------------------------------ > > > > >> > > > > >> Please note that this group is for discussion between users > > only. > > > > >> > > > > >> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly > > to > > > > >> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > > >> > > > > >> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check > > DEVLOG: > > > > >> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > > >> > > > > >> For other support material please check also: > > > > >> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > >> Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users > > only. > > > > > > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly > to > > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > > > > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check > > DEVLOG: > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > > > > > > > > For other support material please check also: > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
