Take my words for it, Brian, you gave all the elements to believe in the system...
To be trusteful in politics and financial people we should be mad or a philosophe, no ? Best regards brian_z111 a écrit : > > LEVERAGING BANKRUPTCY! > > A few more articles on CreditDefaultSwaps (CDS) ... old news now to > insiders and those in the industry. > > Opinions vary on how much risk is still out there, what it totals up > to and who, exactly, is holding the parcel. > > How much of the perceived risk is fear and how much is real the > markets are yet to show us... last weeks selldown in the US majors > that hold most of the CDS exposure may be the discounted value... the > problem is that they can't actually be valued at anytime ... further > declines in the market, and economic prospects, could trigger more > defaults. > > Curious how JPM hasn't been hammered as much as C and BAC ... > haven't figure that one out yet. > > Anyway... a couple of pessimistic reviews, an optimistic denouncement > and a factual report from the US regulator, amongst other things. > > a) Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis? > Times. > Monday, Mar. 17, 2008 > > http://www.time. com/time/ business/ article/0, 8599,1723152, 00.html > <http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1723152,00.html> > > b) The Next Banking Bomb? > CBS News Investigates: Credit Derivatives Comprise $54.6 Trillion Of > Risk Among Few Banks Left Standing > > "Today, the same commercial banking heavyweights thought to be the > most safe, JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America, hold 92 > percent of all the disclosed credit derivative contracts, according > to the OCC". > > http://www.cbsnews. com/stories/ 2008/10/10/ cbsnews_investig > ates/main451 > <http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/10/cbsnews_investigates/main451> > 4163.shtml > > c) Lehmans CDS's obligations. ..auction… . > Obligated parties may have hedged already…. WaMu and others yet to > unwind. > > http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp- <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-> > dyn/content/ article/2008/ 10/10/AR20081010 03050.html > > d) Depository Trust Clearing Corporation debunks speculation on > CreditDefaultSwaps market and claims "Lehman Credit Default Swap > Worries Overblown". > > http://www.marketwa tch.com/news/ story/dtcc- addresses- > misconceptions- > <http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dtcc-addresses-misconceptions-> > about-credit/ story.aspx? guid=%7B7B5C1B13 -9F34-44C0- 971B-16EEF9FC0D6 4% > 7D&dist=hppr > > e) The official position … from the Office of the Comptroller of the > Currency (OCC) > > June30 – scroll down for tables/charts on CDS exposure > > http://www.occ. treas.gov/ ftp/release/ 2008-115a. pdf > <http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf> > > f) Archeological footprints in the sand??? > > http://globaleconom icanalysis. blogspot. com/2008/ 09/thoughts- > on-credit- > <http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/thoughts-on-credit-> > default-swaps. html > > (there wasn't anything on TV) > > brian_z > > --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED] ps.com > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@ ...> > wrote: > > > > Hello Ken, > > > > I agree that the community is a pool of trading experience if > people > > do want to share it..... the difficulty is confining it to trade > talk > > and not politics. > > > > > How has the turmoil in your local > > > economy/exchange/ country influenced how you trade and what your > > >more recent > > > performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will > doing > > >in the > > > next days and weeks > > > > I have already flagged my opinion and some of what I consider to be > > appropriate strategies in previous posts, some going back quite a > way. > > > > a) value investing ... not my strategy ... another brilliant > > exposition by Buffet in the last two weeks ... right now some > stocks > > are at incredible value PROVIDED you really are buying FOREVER and > > you do have the stomach for the ride i.e. you really don't care > what > > the 'price' is doing because you are happy with the yield. > > > > > > I also posted some indications of the relative value of the > > Australian market ... this is fundamentally a US problem that Aus > was > > partly isolated from ... except for the longer term affects on > global > > economies ... refer to the following link (take the link, at the > top > > of the page, to the full PDF review to see detailed comment and > > graphs on why Aus financials are not going down the gurgler ... > small > > % of Aus mortgae market is in US equivalent to sub-primes ... > > delinquincy rates are low etc) > > > > > http://www.rba. gov.au/Publicati onsAndResearch/ FinancialStabili > tyReview > <http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/FinancialStabilityReview> > > /Sep2008/Html/ financial_ stability_ review_0908. html > > > > The current crisis crystallised my view that investors should buy > > yield at the bottom and anticipate growth as the cycle matures to a > > new bull run. > > > > Note that in Australia payout ratios are high and earnings yield is > > often delivered as dividend yield along with tax breaks for high > > earners. > > > > Another difference is that in Australia superannuation saving is > > compulsory, in the form of payroll deductions ... large amounts of > > money are still flowing into Aus retirement funds ... it is sitting > > on the sidelines in the form of cash so when the market is deemed > to > > have hit the bottom their is sufficient cash in reserve to sustain > a > > good start to a new bull cycle. > > > > On top of that Aus interest rates are at 6% and have room to move > > plus the economy is basically sound. > > > > Against this is the fact that right now we have gone past > nervousness > > to 'rabbit in the headlight' fear ... no one can predict what can > > happen in that environment or what people will do. > > > > > > So there are some great long term opportunities for very brave > > investors but you have to do the analysis on the earning streams of > > companies to estimate their stability into the future. > > > > > > > > My own response: > > > > I made these decisions a long way back .... not to hold foreign > > accounts .... not to be an 'investor' .... not to rely entirely on > > mechanical trading .... not to be a long term trader ... to trade > > short as naturally as I trade long ... not to impose my theories on > > the market but to let the market dicate trades to me (based on the > > charts)... not to have an inflexible attitude about what my trading > > style should be .... to take into account the news of the day, both > > in general and specifically with reference to sectors or companies > of > > interest. > > > > In the short term the only adjustment I have made to strategy is to > > move away from short term trades (a few days) and move towards > > intraday ..... I was aleady biased to intraday trading anyway but > > more than ever at the moment.... > > > > DO NOT HOLD OVERNIGHT OR WEEKEND POSTIONS > > > > ... an afterhours political decision can kill you. > > > > I am in cash every night. > > > > Gold and oil are extremely volatile so that makes for a good > intraday > > payday ... the negative there is that volatility can kill you if > you > > are on the wrong side of it..... once again prices can leap over > > stops. > > > > > > > > The state of the markets: > > > > What I am watching now is the situation in Europe ... it seems to > > have peaked around Iceland ... Iceland can't afford to buy its way > > out of trouble but it looks like other nations are helping out ... > > Russia lent a few billion Euros ... Holland lent them the money to > > guarantee the retail deposits of Dutch accounts with Icelandic > > banks ... UK about to do the same. > > > > So, unless there is anymore shocking Euro news there may be an end > in > > sight for Europe. > > > > Unfortunately all roads lead to Wall Street. > > > > I find the view of economist Jubak credible i.e. that the sticking > > point is the carry forward debt of Lehman's ... unknown owners at > > this stage ... refer to the link below for a video discussion ... > > Lehmans CreditDefaultSwaps auctioned last friday establishes debt, > > for holders of approx 91 cents/$ ... to be cleared by the end of > > October ... the companies holding that debt should be known before > > then. > > > > [scroll down to "Is It The End OF Financial World?" video] > > > > http://moneycentral .msn.com/ investor/ home.asp > <http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp> > > > > I also agree with Noriel Roubini's recent comments (I posted a link > > to his RGE Monitor site before) ... IMO Govt's didn't act radically > > enough, or with enough haste, but it is easy to be an armchair > critic. > > > > All the best with your trading. > > > > brian_z > > > > > > --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED] ps.com > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "Ken Close" <ken45140@> wrote: > > > > > > I realize that this is off topic, but this list has two > > characteristics that > > > make this post potentially interesting as well as relevant. > > > > > > We have members from all over the world, representing > participants > > and > > > citizens in many, many countries. > > > > > > We also have members who trade differently using different > > securities and > > > different approaches. > > > > > > My question is: are you making money in the current volatile > > economic > > > climate and if so how? How has the turmoil in your local > > > economy/exchange/ country influenced how you trade and what your > > more recent > > > performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will > doing > > in the > > > next days and weeks (as it changes so frequently, who knows what > > months will > > > bring)? > > > > > > I realize we seldom talk about anything but coding and user > issues > > with the > > > AB program, but could we have a departure for a moment, at least > in > > this > > > thread, to comment on how you see the near term future in your > neck > > of the > > > (woods) world, and what you are doing about your trading and/or > > investing. > > > > > > I personally am heavily hedged, ie, own high percentage of > inverse > > funds, > > > along with one position in a top performing and so far, slower > > losing mutual > > > fund (OAKBX) as well as a few stocks that are truly buy and > hold. > > Down > > > about 3% year to date and would have been positive if I had > > unloaded other > > > long (hedged) positions sooner. > > > > > > Any comments? > > > > > > Thanks, > > > > > > Ken > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ **** IMPORTANT **** This group is for the discussion between users only. 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