>The reasoning changes all the time. whatever fills the page. The quota to be filled, by the deadline, is the media message (apologies to Marshall McCluhan).
> Oil and markets now move parallel. And then some .... that is what I am finding eerie .... watching the major markets, at the moment, is like watching synchronized swimming. >I thought the average production costs of oil is 70$/barrel. Guess >today it's cheaper. Who nows? My point is that reality and the Gulf Producers spin could be worlds apart. > Cheap oil is bad, it means recession or worse depression :) Just thinking out loud here .... let's face it ... if my predictions go better than 50/50 I am a statistical aberrhation or a scientific freak! Oil at $140 was BAD ... and now oil at $70 is BAD? There is no good news in there anywhere ... no companies or industries that will increase earnings, in the next quarter or two, based on $70 oil? Re interest rates and economies ... below 4%, with 3% inflation, does a 50bp rate cut move mountains.... this is headline news? Re the US interest rates ... I am suggesting that with rates == inflation anyone and everyone will have loaded up to the hilt a long time ago and fresh cuts aren't going to stimulate anyone too much. By comparison, cheap oil doesn't get a headline anywhere? Specifically I am speculating that oil may well hover around about $70 for the next 3 months, maybe even 6 months. Now that's either a brave or foolish prediction. brian_z --- In [email protected], "Edward Pottasch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Cheap oil is bad, it means recession or worse depression :) The reasoning changes all the time. whatever fills the page. Oil and markets now move parallel. I thought the average production costs of oil is 70$/barrel. Guess today it's cheaper. > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: brian_z111 > To: [email protected] > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 3:02 PM > Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ? > > > Sounds like you are on the USD (smile!) > > The news is out on the net - it's 50 bp (inflation heading down but > still above ECB target rate?). > > Sorry Ed but the FX market appears to be indifferent to such news. > > There is an eerie hush around world markets right now .... strangest > response of all is that no one is interested in the positive effect > oil at $70 has on industrial economies ... it seems to be trading in > a band capped at 70 (is oil in the tent?). > > brian_z > > --- In [email protected], "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> > wrote: > > > > 150 bp cut by BoE - nice:-) Do they know something we don't know > yet? > > Time for 100 bp cut by ECB ? > > > > Best regards, > > Tomasz Janeczko > > amibroker.com > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> > > To: <[email protected]> > > Sent: Friday, October 24, 2008 8:03 AM > > Subject: [amibroker] OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ? > > > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart: > > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/ > > > > > > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at > 1.5%) > > > > > > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%. > > > > > > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of > Japan central bank in '90s. > > > > > > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much > faster than FED, IMHO. > > > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD > = 1.0 soon > > > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for > months to come. > > > > > > Any thoughts? > > > > > > Best regards, > > > Tomasz Janeczko > > > amibroker.com > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > **** IMPORTANT **** > > > This group is for the discussion between users only. > > > This is *NOT* technical support channel. > > > > > > ********************* > > > TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT from AmiBroker please send an e-mail > directly to > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > ********************* > > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > > > > For other support material please check also: > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > > > ********************************* > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > >
