Correction 95 - 105
--- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > IMO the Japanese govt target band for the USD/Yen is 95 - 100. > > Lack of volatility of the Yen, immediately after Mondays bear trap, > indicates that the all that interested in it right now. > If it moves outside of the target band, with gusto, then some new > impetus is driving it. > > I still think it is good indicator of the end of the first wave of > leverage redemptions (the usual indicators are meaningless in a > rampant leverage deficit environment). > > Commodities charts is also indicate that we are going into some less > volatile territory (another useful inidcator at the moment because > leverage impaired players held their commodities to the death .. that > was their last card). > > Also, it is not all on the Hedge Funds (some would like to lay all of > the blame there) ..... most of the buck stops at the major investment > banks ... they received their first cheque from the treasury this > week and they have been hired to administrate the bail out so all is > well that ends well. > > Chances are that some listless sideways movement is more likely than > another dive ... don't be caught by surprize if the US grabs the ball > for a short ball run, say up to 1100 or 1200 onthe SP....more likely > after a short rest. > > More deleveraging pressure is likely in the last half of the month > but this can be overwhelmed and staved off by market optimism. > > The short term future for the US economy doesn't need to be as bad as > some economists are predicting ( hey, that is their job and they are > only statisticians afterall is said and done). > > (hope my unofficial blog has helped some ... Warren Buffet called his > bottom two weeks ago ... I called my last weekend ... it is all good > fun ... IMO the worst is over ... the caveat is being wrong is part > of the fun). > > For future reference: > > > - the insiders are months, days, hours ahead of their actions > - govts, for the greater good, don't spell out all of their actions > and sometimes act behind the scenes > - their actions as recorded in the charts, lag behind the real game > - the news/internet is anything from hours to days behind > - public opinion is bloated with emotion and overshooting all of the > marks. > > Good lunk to the fund managers - it's a tough job - might as well > relax and enjoy your first weekend for a while - hope there is more > good weeks to come. > > If I am wrong there will be no point in sueing me cause I will be > broke too. > > good trading > > brian_z > > > --- In [email protected], "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> > wrote: > > > > Hello, > > > > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart: > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/ > > > > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at > 1.5%) > > > > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%. > > > > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of > Japan central bank in '90s. > > > > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much > faster than FED, IMHO. > > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD = > 1.0 soon > > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for > months to come. > > > > Any thoughts? > > > > Best regards, > > Tomasz Janeczko > > amibroker.com > > >
