Ed, The fact that certain sectors and individual issues outperform the broad averages during various periods is a given. As a result, irrespective of specific trading time frames (e.g., day/minute to buy and hold) everybody is a market timer in the sense that buying is based on the belief that within the individual's time frame a sale can be made for a profit. Use of an appropriate "system(s)" whether mechanical, discretionary, or a mixture is essential to trading/investing success (i.e., arguably beats having a "dream"). Whether systems must fail at some point, as Howard claims, is certainly questionable and at best, imo, applies for the most part to strictly mechanical methods.
Bill ----- Original Message ----- From: Ed Hoopes To: [email protected] Sent: June 02, 2009 2:43 PM Subject: [amibroker] Re: Do all trading systems stop working? - Howard Bandy's book Wave, I should have included the time frame I was ranking over. My ranking is EOD, for trades lasting from a few weeks to a few months - basically swing trading. The point I was trying to make was that Howard Bandy may be right, but there are still sectors of the market that outperform the broad averages like the S&P - at least over the short term. Another point that Bandy makes is that very short term trading systems (day trading) seem more resistant to breaking - so all may not be lost. Finally, another curious feature is that an end of the month trade covered in his book is well known but continues to work - witness the last few days of trading ! ! ReefBreak --- In [email protected], "wavemechanic" <fim...@...> wrote: > > Happen to be doing well now. How about KOL in 11/08? > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ed Hoopes > To: [email protected] > Sent: June 02, 2009 12:58 PM > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Do all trading systems stop working? - Howard Bandy's book > > > I guess that we all need to get better at market timing if we're going to trade SPY. > > Out of the 1600 or so ETF-CEF funds there are a few that stand out - all are sector funds that happen to be doing well. > > Check out: > KOL - Coal > PWND - Wind Energy > IDX - Indonesia > PSTL - Steel > > ReefBreak > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote: > > > > Yes, last year was the real benchmark for managers/investors/traders ... I hope I learned my lessons ready for the next one. High volatility and correlated screaming bear years are here to stay.... they are the inevitable consequence of momentum trading, which is a self perpetuating system until the music stops and someone is left holding the parcel. > > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "wavemechanic" <fimdot@> wrote: > > > > > > I suspect that these funds are not run by black boxes although the managers are working within a defined methodology. In any case, over the last couple of years the picture is a little different relative to the S&P500. In that case, all are in the same ballpark (a little higher/lower over time) except for two underperformers - PSP and STH. So, relative to these funds make life simple buy SPY and close your eyes. > > > > > > Bill > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: Ed Hoopes > > > To: [email protected] > > > Sent: June 02, 2009 11:02 AM > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Do all trading systems stop working? - Howard Bandy's book > > > > > > > > > There are publicly traded funds organized around various trading systems. Below are a few for comparison: > > > > > > NFO - Insider Info > > > STH - Stealth > > > XRO - Sector Rotation > > > PIQ - Magni Quant > > > PSP - Private Equity > > > FVI - ValueLine 100 Stocks > > > BWV - Covered Calls > > > CSD - Spin Off Companies > > > DEF - Defensive Stocks > > > EZY - Low PE Ratio Stocks > > > > > > Now take each one of the above and do a relative performance to the overall market - like VTI Vanguards Total Market ETF - and you can see how well they work. > > > > > > NFO, PSP, EZY top the list with a modest out performance using my ranking algorithm. The majority equal the market or underperform. > > > > > > For me the most disappointing is FVI only as good as the broad market - so much for $650.00/yr fundamental/technical analysis newsletter. XRO - is the worst. > > > > > > ReefBreak > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > **** IMPORTANT PLEASE READ **** > This group is for the discussion between users only. > This is *NOT* technical support channel. > > TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT send an e-mail directly to > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > TO SUBMIT SUGGESTIONS please use FEEDBACK CENTER at > http://www.amibroker.com/feedback/ > (submissions sent via other channels won't be considered) > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > Yahoo! Groups Links > ------------------------------------ **** IMPORTANT PLEASE READ **** This group is for the discussion between users only. This is *NOT* technical support channel. TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT send an e-mail directly to SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com TO SUBMIT SUGGESTIONS please use FEEDBACK CENTER at http://www.amibroker.com/feedback/ (submissions sent via other channels won't be considered) For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ Yahoo! Groups Links
