Muthu,

Seeing you jump from 10k down to 50, then up again to 900, you'll
probably end up with 300 by the end of the week :-)

Peli

On Apr 9, 2:50 pm, Muthu Ramadoss <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> With close to 9000 developers registered in android-developers forum,
> say 10% will actually submit. My NEW prediction - 900.
>
>
>
> Peli wrote:
> > I think the page I mentioned 
> > (http://code.google.com/android/adc_judging.html
> > ) was added very late in the game. I only found it recently. It
> > carries the following date at the bottom of the page: Build m5-rc15d -
> > 03 Apr 2008 16:19, but so do other pages that are older. To be fair, I
> > don't know when this page was added exactly. It may have been there
> > for a while, without me noticing it. (If someone had seen that page
> > already a month or two ago, please let me know!)
>
> > But in case it was really only added a week or two ago, the people who
> > wrote the page had insight into the actual number of submissions so
> > far, and based on that it made sense to introduce a phase I that is
> > nowhere mentioned in the original ADC terms and conditions.
>
> > It is also interesting that they did not introduce more phases (like
> > reduce the number first to 1000 entries, then to 200, and finally to
> > 50 - which would have indicated thousands of submissions...).
>
> > So to get back to the claim above, if one estimates 100+ submissions
> > or 100-1000 this would be far better than the number suggested in "the
> > most accurate submission count tool", with 300 (*) being an even
> > closer guess for not completely trivial apps :-) At least, that is my
> > personal guess - others may guess differently. ;-)
>
> > Peli
>
> > (*) Note: 300 ~ sqrt(100*1000) also happens to be the geometric mean
> > for the reasonable range of 100 to 1000 submissions.
>
> > On Apr 9, 1:56 pm, Philip <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> >> On Apr 9, 1:41 pm, Peli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> >>> The point is, if the number of submissions was 67, there was no need
> >>> to preselect the first 100... (regardless of whether this is a nice
> >>> number or not).
>
> >> My point was that the number 100 was picked not based on any
> >> preliminary estimates or dynamics of the submission process.
>
> >> Philip
>
> --
> Thanks.
>
> Muthu 
> Ramadosshttp://mobeegal.inhttp://androidrocks.inhttp://intellibitz.comhttp://twitter.com/intellibitzhttp://linkedin.com/in/tellibitzhttp://slideshare.net/intellibitzhttp://groups.google.com/group/android-chennai
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