Visit our website: HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------------------------- Russian Observer September 9, 2001 After that [Kosovo elections], Kosovo will then make another attempt to gain its independence de jure, and correspondingly, one of the ways of achieving that is to activate the militants in Macedonia. And that is apparently when one may expect the resumption of large-scale armed actions. If war breaks out...the Albanians...will most likely occupy all the zones they lay claim to, after which they will call the peacekeepers in again to legalize the resulting state of affairs. That they will accomplish this should not be ruled out as they are obviously making use of U.S. patronage and the permissiveness of the Europeans. In the event of war, the Macedonians alone will not hold out Institute of Europe expert, Pavel Kandel, believes war in Macedonia is possible 06.54.2001, 17:54 The NATO arms harvesting operation, taking into consideration the deadlines and objectives, is simply an imitation of activity. Right from the outset, it could have no serious stabilizing effect. The objective itself - to collect 3,000 guns in a month and then to consider it mission accomplished - speaks of the folly nature of the very approach that could be called "even a little is better than nothing." It is clear that this operation cannot seriously influence the situation because it does not change the balance of forces in Macedonia. Rather than speaking about "an essential harvest" it would be more correct to speak of "gone with the wind." There are considerably more than 3,000 guns. And the ethnic Albanians are handing in rare museum pieces rather than guns. And this was clear from the outset. It is quite possible that in the not too distant future, much more serious armed actions will start there. The only question is when? Perhaps this could be very soon, but most likely this will happen when elections are held in Kosovo. After that, Kosovo will then make another attempt to gain its independence de jure, and correspondingly, one of the ways of achieving that is to activate the militants in Macedonia. And that is apparently when one may expect the resumption of large-scale armed actions. If the NATO forces are replaced by European peacemakers, then the first armed actions will scatter them for sure. However, the NATO contingent, in this sense, has done nothing to put up an effective barrier in the way of the Albanian militants, and in fact, it is not even ready for this. In this sense, NATO, which is trying to play the role of an international gendarme in the Balkans, is simply professionally not coping with its functions. What kind of gendarme is it if it is acting only at a safe distance and against a meek opponent? Acting alone, the Macedonians too will not be able to cope with the task. They have a poorly armed army that has never really been engaged in battle. It is badly trained. If war breaks out and the Albanians do not meet any resistance to speak of, they will most likely occupy all the zones that they lay claims to, after which they will call in the peacekeepers again to legalize the resulting state of affairs. That they will accomplish this should not be ruled out since they are obviously making use of U.S. patronage and of permissiveness of the Europeans. And the second option is that the situation will be frozen de facto. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get email alerts & NEW webcam video instant messaging with Yahoo! Messenger http://im.yahoo.com ------------------------------------------------- This Discussion List is the follow-up for the old stopnato @listbot.com that has been shut down ==^================================================================ EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9spWA Or send an email To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] This email was sent to: [email protected] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
