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Daily Telegraph
April 24, 2002

Military force 'is not enough to defeat al-Qa'eda' 
By Ben Smalley in the Arabian Gulf


-"I'm not sure there will ever be a day when victory
will be declared and peace will be recognised."

THE Commandant General of the Royal Marines, Maj Gen
Robert Fry, has given warning that the conflict in
Afghanistan will be extensively drawn out and never
completely won militarily.

The guerrilla tactics used by the al-Qa'eda forces in
the Afghan mountains could be defeated only through
effective nation-building, he said.

"I'm not sure there will ever be a day when victory
will be declared and peace will be recognised," he
added. "It's simply not that sort of situation."

Maj Gen Fry was speaking on board the helicopter
assault ship Ocean which delivered two companies of
Marines from Arbroath-based 45 Commando to Afghanistan
earlier this month.

Despite his caution, he believes the coalition will
ultimately achieve its aim, notwithstanding the
experience and historical success which al-Qa'eda
fighters have had using guerrilla warfare tactics.

"They have been at what they are doing for a very long
time. They have developed tactics which, in the event,
were decisively effective against the Russians.

"We have seen that they can adapt those tactics
further from the success that they enjoyed locally
against the Americans. But we must not overrate this
sort of thing. Anaconda [last month's US operation]
was a resounding defeat as far as al-Qa'eda is
concerned. 

"The casualties they sustained were considerable and
the fact that they have chosen not to appear in large
numbers since then, is evidence that they don't feel
they have the military confidence to do so.

"They are tough people and some of them have very
little recourse other than to fight where they are
because, if they are expatriate Arabs, Chechens or
whatever else, there is nowhere else for them to go,
but I don't think it's anything that isn't within our
compass to achieve."

The deployment to Bagram air base at the weekend of a
further 120 marines brings the Commando up to its full
strength of around 600 men.

They join a battery of from 29 Commando Regt Royal
Artillery equipped with 105mm howitzers, and air crews
manning Chinook helicopters, part of a British force
that is expected to reach 1,700 by the end of this
month.

But as the men prepared to hunt down al-Qa'eda and
Taliban remnants in the mountains, Maj Gen Fry
suggested that it would be a difficult and drawn-out
mission.

"This is a campaign which defies some of the
traditional definitions of the way in which one
conducts war," he said. "I think it will go on for a
considerable period. It might be a gradual,
incremental, progressive thing, but at the same time
there are other dimensions of the campaign as well.

"We have engaged in something which can't necessarily
be defined in terms of time. It needs to be defined in
terms of effect."

But Maj Gen Fry, 50, believes that the British are
better suited than most for the combination of
military operations and the winning of "hearts and
minds" that will be needed if the war in Afghanistan
is ever to end.

"We are probably more experienced in this business
than most," he said. "We have been through sustained
anti-terrorist campaigns, or anti-insurgency
campaigns, for the last half a century, so I think we
have a good idea of the combination of military power,
economic power and institutional change needed.

"All these things have to act together - there isn't
just a military solution. The military dimension is
extremely important but we have also got to be about
creating institutional change in Afghanistan and
creating a durable economy as well."

He said the Marines were likely to rely more on their
own firepower than on the air strikes favoured by US
forces.





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