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Noose tightens around North Korea following Yellow Sea naval battle
By James Conachy
11 July 2002
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The short but bloody naval battle on June 29 between North and South Korean
warships in the Yellow Sea has been utilised by the Bush administration and the
South Korean government to intensify the diplomatic and economic isolation of
North Korea. Washington has cancelled a diplomatic visit to Pyongyang this
month�the first official talks scheduled since Bush�s installation�on the
grounds that the incident was an �armed provocation� by North Korea, which �had
created an unacceptable atmosphere in which to conduct the talks�.
The response in South Korea has been just as belligerent. Politicians and the
media have launched scathing denunciations of North Korea and also South Korean
president, Kim Dae-jung, who has pursued a �Sunshine Policy� of opening up
relations with Pyongyang. Veterans of the Korean War, including retired
generals, have held anti-North demonstrations and called for military
retaliation. Under intense pressure, Kim Dae-jung has demanded a full apology
and authorised a change in the military�s rules of engagement to permit a
�fire-first� policy if South Korean ships are threatened. A 300,000 tonne
shipment of food aid to North Korea is likely to be cancelled, and South Korean
and US military forces have stepped up surveillance activity.
While Washington and Seoul blame North Korea for the naval clash, the
evidence points in the opposite direction. The incident has the hallmarks of a
provocation organised by the South Korean military as a means of galvanising
public opinion behind a more confrontational stance towards the North. While
there are contradictions between the South and North�s versions of what
occurred, both sides agree it was preceded by the incursion of South Korean
fishing boats and naval vessels into waters claimed by North Korea.
North Korea alleges that two of its patrol boats were conducting �routine
coastal guard duty,� seeking to chase southern fishing boats out of the area,
when they were confronted by four South Korean naval speedboats, backed by
several larger warships. A 21-minute exchange of gunfire ensued, during which
one South Korean boat was sunk and one of the North Korean ships was set ablaze.
Four South Korean sailors were killed, 19 wounded and one is missing, presumed
dead. An unknown number of North Koreans were killed or wounded before their
ships retreated. Both sides have accused the other of firing first.
Regardless of who initiated the firing, it is indisputable that the actions
of the South Korean navy on June 29 were out-of-the-ordinary and aggressive. The
battle occurred in an area that has been the subject of a territorial dispute
since the UN unilaterally imposed a sea-border, known as the Northern Limit Line
(NLL), at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. North Korea has never accepted the
UN line, and declared its own boundary several kilometres further south. To
prevent conflicts, South Korea established a �no man�s land� buffer in the form
of 9.6 kilometre �no-fishing zone� south of the NLL. Under normal circumstances,
both navies prevent fishermen entering the buffer zone.
Over the past month, the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) alleges that
incursions by southern fishermen, shadowed by the South Korean navy, have been
frequent. On June 29, it was reported in the South Korean media that as many as
10 South Korean boats were fishing for blue crab�a prized export catch�north of
the �no fishing zone�. A July 3 report published by the Korea Times
quoted a South Korean fisherman who stated that boats had crossed several
kilometres into the zone. One of the wounded South Korean sailors told the
newspaper his ship had taken part in escorting fishing boats out of the zone
some 40 to 50 minutes after they entered it.
The fact the incursions were not prevented and that a sizeable South Korean
naval contingent was lying in wait for the North to send warships into the �no
fishing zone� provides ample grounds for suspecting that the South was seeking
some sort of confrontation. In June 1999, a naval battle took place in the same
area when the South Korean navy launched a massive operation to stop North
Korean boats fishing for crab in the disputed waters. In that exchange, a North
Korean torpedo boat was sunk and dozens of its sailors killed. This time,
however, it appears that the South Korean military were looking to provoke an
incident.
US fuels tensions
The responsibility for creating these tensions rests with Washington. Since
its installation in January 2001, the Bush administration has diplomatically
isolated North Korea, accusing it of constructing �weapons of mass destruction,�
sponsoring terrorism and deliberately �starving its own people�. In January,
Bush labelled North Korea, Iraq and Iran an �axis of evil� and the Pentagon
named North Korea as one of seven countries the US had targeted for potential
nuclear strikes in the event of a conflict.
Under these conditions, North Korea has everything to lose from a clash with
the South. The bellicose US stance has already caused international aid to the
North to dry up. The Stalinist dictatorship in Pyongyang is presiding over an
economy in ruin and a population suffering desperate food shortages. A rise in
military tensions on the Korean peninsula would threaten to scuttle the
�Sunshine Policy,� which offered the prospect of some relief through investment
and economic aid to the North in return for open market reforms.
Under Kim Dae-jung�s plan, the peninsula would remain divided�saving the
South the cost of a German-style reunification�while the South Korean corporate
elite would gain access to low-cost, regimented labour in North Korea, with rail
lines and energy pipelines potentially bringing trade, gas and oil to the South
via Russia and northern China. China and the major European Union states have
backed the policy, attracted by the possibility of establishing viable land
links between Europe and East Asia and undermining the postwar US dominance in
the region.
The Bush administration, supported by the Japanese government of Junichiro
Koizumi, has attempted to sabotage the �Sunshine Policy� by increasing tensions
with the North. Washington and Tokyo are opposed to any agreement on the Korean
peninsula that would benefit China and lead to a greater EU involvement in the
region. The US is also concerned that any negotiated settlement between the two
Koreas would immediately lead to calls for the withdrawal of the 37,000 American
troops stationed in South Korea. The Bush administration�s thinly-veiled
perspective is to bring North Korea to its knees, collapse the Pyongyang regime
and install a pro-US alternative.
Within South Korea, Bush�s stance has emboldened layers of the political and
military establishment that oppose the �Sunshine Policy� and want a more
aggressive policy towards North Korea. The opposition Grand National Party
(GNP), which emerged out of the US-backed military regime that ruled over the
South until 1988, has repeatedly denounced Kim Dae-jung for threatening South
Korea�s security and economic interests. Claiming it has been vindicated, the
GNP has seized on the naval battle to effectively kill the �Sunshine Policy� and
reduce Kim to a lame duck president.
Kim Dae-jung was already under fire over a corruption scandal involving one
of his sons. In May, he resigned from his own Millennium Democratic Party (MDP)
to give its presidential candidate a better chance in the December elections.
The naval incident has erased any political mileage he may have gained from the
World Cup. Both the GNP and MDP are demanding that Kim Dae-jung reshuffle his
cabinet and sack at least six of his ministers. Pre-election polling suggests
the GNP will win a majority in parliament in by-elections in August, and the
presidency later in the year.
The North Korean regime faces the prospect of not only hostile US and
Japanese administrations, but a South Korean government prepared to openly
support their brinkmanship. The degree of concern in Pyongyang was hinted at on
July 4. Its main agency in charge of relations with the South issued a statement
that omitted any reference to the naval battle and declared the North would
�make all our efforts to smoothly promote dialogue and cooperation�.
Any easing of tensions has been rejected thus far in Seoul, Washington and
Tokyo. On July 7, the South Korean military issued an official report blaming
the North for the incident. The US has made clear it does not intend to
re-initiate talks quickly while the Japanese government is devoting up to $US50
million to recover the hull of an alleged North Korean spy ship the Japanese
Coast Guard sunk last December. The Japanese government has alleged the boat was
engaged in either espionage, drug-running or terrorist activity. The aim of
raising the hull is to �find� evidence to fuel anti-North Korea hysteria and
justify Japanese remilitarisation.
The North Korean population will be the first victim of the tensions being
encouraged by Washington on the Korean peninsula and in East Asia. David Morton
of the United Nations Development Program reported last week that the UN World
Food Program had not received sufficient food donations�particularly from the US
and Japan�to meet the expected need in the North. �If we cannot maintain the
distribution to the end of the year, we will certainly see increases in
malnutrition,� he told the Washington Post.
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