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> ___________________________________________________________________ > > > S T R A T F O R > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY > > http://www.stratfor.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > > Saudis Scramble To Secure Consensus Among Arab States > ======================================== > Summary > > A recent Middle East tour by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al > Faisal is part of Riyadh's frantic effort to build an Arab > consensus to counter U.S. pressure. Although the effort likely > will not succeed, Saudi Arabia still wants to figure out to what > degree other Arab states would support a U.S. campaign against > Iraq. > > Analysis > > Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal traveled to Egypt, > Syria, Jordan and Yemen July 10 and 11, ostensibly to build > support for a unified Arab stance on the Israeli-Palestinian > conflict. The diplomatic push comes ahead of a July 16 meeting in > New York between the United States, the European Union, Russia > and the United Nations to discuss the Middle East crisis. Earlier > in the week, Saud also traveled to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the > United Arab Emirates. > > After earlier trying keep Washington distracted by the Israeli- > Palestinian issue -- including by hyping its own peace plan -- > Saudi Arabia is now scrambling to develop an alternate strategy > for dealing with United States. However, the recent round of > diplomacy isn't likely to give Riyadh much more support from Arab > countries like Jordan, Egypt and Yemen, nor will it give it much- > needed leverage against the United States. > > There is a high level of uncertainty in the Middle East right > now. Washington's belligerence toward Iraq and its recent > attempts to isolate and disengage itself from the Israeli- > Palestinian conflict have put the Saudis in a difficult position. > The ruling House of Saud is afraid it might not be able to > withstand the domestic pressures that would be created by a U.S. > offensive against Iraq or, worse, by an effort to root out al > Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. > > Washington's decision to place prerequisites for future dealings > with the Palestinians -- such as the reform of Palestinian > institutions and the election of new leaders -- has given it > justification for focusing its attention on more important > issues. This puts increased pressure on Riyadh, which had hoped > to keep the U.S. government bogged down in the conflict and > distracted from issues such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia's al Qaeda > connections. > > Saud's whirlwind Arab tour is part of Riyadh's effort to > reformulate its relations with other Middle Eastern governments. > Besides the diplomatic tour, Saudi Arabia also recently revived > discussions about building an oil pipeline to Yemen and inked an > agreement with Jordan to boost bilateral trade. Such dollar > diplomacy suggests that Riyadh thinks it can still unite its > neighbors against heightened U.S. military action in the region. > > But the scheme is unlikely to change the position of Unites > States' moderate Arab allies and all of Gulf Arab states -- which > are essentially in Washington's pocket. Egypt and Jordan are both > dependent on U.S. aid and investment. For instance, Jordan > received extremely favorable debt restructuring terms from the > Paris Club of creditors July 11, in part because of its close > economic ties with the United States. > > Immediately before touring the Levant states, Saud also traveled > to all of the Gulf countries. But here too the United States has > the upper hand. Washington has military ties with Bahrain, Qatar, > the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman. > > Washington doesn't even seem to be concerned enough with the > Saudi diplomatic effort to launch a counteroffensive. But > American military leaders are still closely watching frontline > states like Jordan and Kuwait; Gen. Tommy Franks, chief of U.S. > Central Command, traveled to Yemen in late June and Kuwait in > April. Yemen in particular is an important ally in the war > against terrorism and would be doubly vital should relations > between the United States and Saudi Arabia worsen. > > So given how unlikely it is that Riyadh could woo many of the > Arab states away from Washington, what did Prince Saud hope to > achieve? The visits were probably intended to find out how far > countries like Jordan will support a U.S. military campaign > against Iraq, as well as where key player Syria will stand. > > Syria could be the spoiler to any U.S. military offensive against > Iraq. Because of its geographic location -- bordering Iraq, > Turkey, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon -- it will be a key factor in > any action against Baghdad. It is not likely to threaten U.S. > forces directly, but its unwillingness to say whether or not it > would oppose Washington poses a challenge to military planners > and leaves the security of Iraq's western flank in doubt. > > Washington has been trying for some time to bring the Syrians on > board for an Iraq campaign. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell > traveled to Damascus during his Middle Eastern tour in April to > meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad. There have also been > several congressional delegations to the country, most recently > in early July. > > Other Arab states are also trying to determine where Syria > stands. Right after Prince Saud left Syria, the Iraqi government > sent Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz to > Damascus to meet with Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al Shara > July 11. In June, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak also traveled > to Syria and Jordan. > > Riyadh likely didn't expect too much to come from Saud's > diplomatic tour. In March, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah won the > Arab League endorsement of his Middle East peace initiative at a > summit in Beirut. Yet many Arab heads of state including Mubarak > and Jordanian King Abdullah failed to show, signaling their > unwillingness to get on the Saudi peace train. Little has changed > since then to sway these states in the Saudis' favor. > ___________________________________________________________________ --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
