Hello All,
I thought some of you might find this amusing as an example of how
badly the media presents even simple statistics and how such poor
analysis can be important. On CNN, Salon, Fox Television News and
elsewhere a big deal has been made of a graph (attached) showing that
Pat Buchanan had far more votes in Palm Beach County than in any other
Florida county. Need I explain the error any further? :) What follows
is an II press release on the issue and two graphs which tell the story.
Cheers
Alex
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SALON.COM AND CNN CHARTS COMPARING BUCHANAN VOTES IN
PALM BEACH COUNTY TO VOTES IN OTHER FLORIDA COUNTIES
ARE MISLEADING, ARGUES INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE ECONOMIST
Inflammatory rhetoric not justified by Buchanan's votes in Palm Beach,
says Alexander T. Tabarrok, Ph.D.
OAKLAND, Calif. - Were the 3,407 votes received by Patrick
Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida unusually high?
"I don't think we have 3,000 Nazis in Palm Beach County,"
said Palm Beach County Commissioner Bert Aaronson, in referring to
the Buchanan votes, as reported by Salon.com.
Furthermore, at the websites of Salon.com and CNN, charts
like Chart One (see attachment) suggest that the votes Buchanan received
in Palm Beach County were unusually large relative to other Florida
counties.
But Palm Beach County is an unusually large county.
"Buchanan received a lot of votes in Palm Beach County because there
are a lot of voters in Palm Beach County," says economist Dr.
Alexander T. Tabarrok, research director for The Independent
Institute. When votes cast for Buchanan are calculated as a
percentage of votes cast for all presidential candidates, the results
in Palm Beach County do not appear unusual.
"The percentage of votes received by Pat Buchanan from voters
in Palm Beach County is consistent with his overall performance in
Florida," says Tabarrok.
Buchanan received 0.78 percent of the vote in Palm Beach
County. By comparison, he received an average of 0.46 percent of the
vote in the other Florida counties. (See accompanying charts.)
Although Buchanan received a larger share in Palm Beach County than
in the average Florida county he performed even better in some other
counties, such as Calhoun, where voting errors are not alleged to
have occurred. Buchanan's Palm Beach share of the vote did not depart
significantly from the average.
Some people may have mistakenly marked their ballots for
Buchanan in Palm Beach County as in other counties but there is no
evidence of this in the voting data. "The impression given by Salon,
CNN and others that Buchanan's vote in Palm Beach County was
unusually large is a statistical fraud. I am shocked and concerned
that reputable news organizations would present data in such a
misleading and na�ve manner especially given the importance of clear
thinking at this time", said Tabarrok.
(See Attachments)
-30-
The Independent Institute (www.independent.org) is a non-profit,
non-politicized, scholarly public policy research and education
organization headquartered in Oakland, CA.
--
Dr. Alexander Tabarrok
Vice President and Director of Research
The Independent Institute
100 Swan Way
Oakland, CA, 94621-1428
Tel. 510-632-1366, FAX: 510-568-6040
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
