Alex Wrote:
> remember there are two issues of concern, the supposedly large number of Buchanan
>votes and
>the double-punched ballot - the latter has nothing to do with the former (i.e. the
>double-punched
>ballots are spoiled and do not contribute to Buchanan's total).
Maybe, maybe not. The claim is that many people who intended to vote for Gore punched
the Buchanan hole when they were going down the left column of the ballot and then
realized their mistake when they read down the right column. At that point many say
they punched Gore as well. Although the claim that there were an inordinately high
number of double punches has been called into question (and I don't claim to know that
there are more than would be expected), if there are an unusually high number of
double punches for Gore and Buchanan that would be evidence of the sort of confusion
that people are claiming has marred the vote.
Now for the economics (or at least econometrics). It certainly looks like Florida law
is very favorable to the notion that if the election doesn't represent 'the will of
the electorate' that the election can be overturned by the Florida courts. Whatever
one may think of this precedent (and I'm dubious about whether its a good idea myself)
it is more than just possible that some judge will have to make a ruling on whether
the Palm Beach election represents the 'will of the electorate' and he won't be able
to throw his hands up in the air and say "I don't know." (He might not if Gore wins
the recount or concedes after losing the recount.) Obviously he will consider lots of
anecdotal evidence -- grandmas and others who claim to have accidently voted for the
wrong candidate etc. He will probably also be confronted with claims that Buchanan had
a strong organization in Palm Beach. My guess from what I've heard is that the
anecdotal evidence will give him basis to conclude that the!
ballot may have mislead a substantial number of people into voting for the wrong
candidate, but there may be a role for statistical analysis as well. No doubt at least
one side will attempt to proffer such analysis. If you were the judge, what would you
want to see in such an analysis? Presumably the answer to this question could be
important since at least one news report I heard suggested that there was precedent in
FL for throwing out election results in a few precincts were fraud was demonstrated
and replacing them with a statistical analysis of voting.
-- Bill
William T. Dickens
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: (202) 797-6113
FAX: (202) 797-6181
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