If the decision is literally a "no-brainer," then failing to consider
alternatives is rational.  

>>>??!!! Not if they make the wrong choice! OK, I suppose you are going to argue that 
>all the people who didn't have a clue what the return to continuing their education 
>was are the ones for whom it was a no brainer and the ones who were about to drop out 
>all answered my questions correctly. I can't prove that wrong but do you really 
>believe that was what was going on?

Marginal students frequently weigh continuing
vs. dropping out (just like they weigh attending vs. not attending!).

>>>Agreed, but it is my contention that they don't deal with the future returns in a 
>way an economist would judge as rational. 

Incidentally, most of your arguments (here and later in this discussion)
suggest that people over-estimate the return to education.  Is that your
real view?

>>>If you ask people to think about it my guess is that the average person attending a 
>four year college will give you a response suggesting that they over estimate how 
>much money they will make either when they graduate or if they drop out. The only 
>evidence I have on this (my survey of Berkeley undergrads taking intermediate macro) 
>suggests that they over estimate the percentage return as well. However, I don't 
>think people act on this information. It is my strong impression that people 
>tremendously overweight their current feelings of happiness or unhappiness about 
>being in school so that on net people don't get as much schooling as they should if 
>they were truly utility maximizes. 
- - Bill

William T. Dickens
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: (202) 797-6113
FAX:     (202) 797-6181
E-MAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
AOL IM: wtdickens


Reply via email to