These are issues that are not easy to get a good handle on Uttam. I don't necessarily believe ANY govt.'s claims on such matters. They are, at best, half-truths.
Having said that, if we look at the Chinese acknowledgement that they are making a "run-of-the-river" hydropower "tunnel", it does NOT mean "diverting" the river away some place else. What it means is that they are diverting the water to run thru a tunnel and back into the river, while generating power during the run thru the tunnel. But even here can be half-truths and misleading claims, like there are in the Lower Subansiri HEP project, which India claims to be a "run-of-the-river" HEP project and thus claiming there will be no reduction of water-flow. But what India does not tell you, unless challenged, is that: The Subansiri water will be impounded daily for about 20 hours, to build up the height of the water column in the reservoir, so that they can generate maximum power by releasing it for the remaining four hours in the evening. Now, the claim that it does not affect the total flow of water may be technically true. But the fact that every evening the Subansiri will flood and most of the day will run dry, will have a huge impact on the lives of the people downstream and a wholesale destruction of the habitat of all living things that have adapted to living in and with the river over millenia. And if you look into the impact of sudden release of massive amounts of water to prevent a dam collapse after a sudden spurt in rainfall or a cloudburst, like has been done by power generators in every dam in the NE in recent decades, it could mean a calamity of unprecedented proportions, not just for those in the Subansiri valley, but much farther downstream on the Brahmaputra valley even. Now looking back on the Tsangpo damming in Tibet, surely it will impact flow downstream during the dry season, but not like it would be if it were to be diverted AWAY from the river ( for irrigation or driniking water etc.) and not in the total flow of the Brahmaputra river. Because the Brahmaputra flow is a result of not just Tsangpo alone, it also has Lohit and Dibang ( in the dry season) that contribute snowmelt waters, even though to a lesser extent than the Tsangpo. If the snowmelt water continues to reduce as is predicted, the Tibetan hydropower project could become dysfunctional. So the Chinese could impound the water in a reservoir to use it as it sees fit. THAT would be when it will seriously impact the Brahmaputra in the dry season. But during the wet season, the Brahmaputra gets its flow from rainfall south of the Himalayas and thus would not feel the impact of a small Chinese impoundment in Tibet. But that too could change if China begins to build a series of dams on the Tsangpo all the way down to near the border at Arunachal. That could have very serious impact on the Brahmaputra. That is just ONE aspect of the issues. THere are many more. On Dec 17, 2010, at 8:58 PM, uttam borthakur wrote: > Chandan Da, > > I do not have the temerity to question MM on the technical aspect; I am > simply not qualified to do that. But there is this story of China making a > tunnel to divert Tsang Po: and it is very difficult to rely on the Chinese > statements of denial, because, initially they were even denying about a dam > being built. Now, the point is : if the Chinese are really building a tunnel > to divert Tsang Po, then Tibet being in the rain-shadow zone, they must be > sure that Snow melt would be firm for a while to justify the investment in > such a tunnel project. What would make them sure? Is there any possible > answer to this question? I am just trying to learn, in view of the accusation > and my own experience about the receding snow line due to global warming (or > is it global cooling that now the north of Europe is shivering with > unprecedented cold)? > > > > > > XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX > I agree with your analysis here Uttam. But it is also true that China cannot > really do serious damage to > the Brahmaputra water flow, precisely because of the scientific reason > explained by mm. MM's China bias > notwithstanding, Indian designs on the waters of Arunachal is the REAl threat > Assam and B'desh. > > > > > > > > On Dec 17, 2010, at 7:29 AM, uttam borthakur wrote: > >> Mahanta Da, >> >> In the last response, you had stated that owners/ builders >> of the Mega Dam are not concerned about a monster dam being felled by an >> earth-quake, because, the owner is Indian Government and it is not concerned >> about it, as the money spent is only paper-currency. I have not been able to >> buy the argument, because, it does not make any economic sense. None would >> invest in India if the paper currency has no worth. In fact the balance of >> payment situation has led to currency baiting at Seoul and the US has passed >> a bill to impose countervailing duty on imports from economies such as China >> and India as they have not allowed appreciation of their currencies in >> detriment to the US industries. >> >> >> If your contention were true, Indian government would then spend such huge >> amounts for the welfare of all people with the same zeal in order to get >> over the growing discontent , as displayed by the fissiparous tendencies >> all around. What the Indian government works for is only in the interest of >> crony capitalism which has even been underscored by a member of the ruling >> class namely L K Advani, when he stated that corporate houses determine who >> would be what in the government. >> >> I think what one of my friends wrote to me sounds sensible: that there is >> no earlier example of a washout of a dam, though many people (2 lakhs >> perhaps) lost their lives in China in 2008. There were only damages to the >> dams. So, this history may have inspired the Indian Government and its >> cronies and the international investors and also the insurers to throw >> caution to the winds in so far as the fate of the people is concerned. >> Damages may be cured; electricity generation is a must for the corporate >> houses, big business and extraction of alumina from third largest reserve of >> bauxite from Maoist dominated Central India. To hell with lives of petty >> people that are only required during elections; and that can be taken care >> of in due course, as one or the other representative of the corporate houses >> will only rule India. >> >> And I do not understand your bias in favour of China. As a race I too would >> not demean the Chinese as I would not cast aspersion on my own, but the >> military-industrial-one-party-bureaucratic complex or system in place in >> China would surely act for the interest of it own cronies, as evident from >> its dirty fuel consumption and the havoc already played by its monster dams >> in more than one occasion on its own people. >> >> And the common madness displayed by both China and India in tampering with >> nature is no madness at all. It is the myopia of capitalism that can see >> only the immediate: in the short run. >> >> >> Uttam Kumar Borthakur >> >> >> >> >> >> I do not think China is in a mad race TO HARNESS Electricity from the >> Tsang-Po -- because as you all know P is a multiple of Q.H : >> P=Megawatt Q = Flow through the Turbine in Cubic metre per second. >> H=Head in Metre between inlet and outlet of Turbine. >> Where is the Q in Tibet? Except melting snow-and nothing called Monsoon? >> India is in a race- and it is mad . Poor PLANNERS do not know Who >> Planned-Why Planned -What for -What will come off these dams. >> >> mm >> >> Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2010 00:59:29 +0600 >> Subject: Clarion call to the Premiers of China and India :Please do not >> obstruct the free flowing Brahmaputra >> From: hifangbd at gmail.com >> To: pmosb at pmo.nic.in >> >> >> CLARION CALL and FERVENT APPEAL >> TO THE HON'BLE PREMIERS OF CHINA AND INDIA >> >> 1. You both will be meeting in Delhi on 16 December, 2010 on many issues. >> Will you talk on the fate of the Brahmaputra? >> >> 2. We know that both India and China do have eagle eyes on the Brahmaputra >> river which has been >> flowing thru' China, India and Bangladesh originating from the glaciers of >> the Tibet mountains. >> >> >> 3. Both India and China have been in the mad race of harnessing electricity >> from Brahmaputra >> by constructing several mega-dams upon it. The dirty and ugly methodology of >> choosing >> mega-dam projects arbitrarily and unilaterally on the part of both the >> countries could be >> >> termed as flagrant violations of UN watercourses convention, 1997. >> >> 4.Will you shun this self-suicidal violent path of leading assault upon the >> natural flow of >> 3000km long free flowing river Brahmaputra. >> >> >> 5.The mega-dams will cause mega disaster through obstructing free flowing >> silt. >> Ecology, biodiversity, livelihood and the riverine civilization will be >> doomed >> throughout the basin. Bangladesh being geographically at the receiving >> >> downstream end will have the worst fallout. >> >> 6. Our clarion call: India, China and Bangladesh.....forget the past. Think >> anew pragmatically. Establish >> Joint Brahmaputra Basin Authority. Harness resource from the common >> international river Brahmaputra >> >> without causing assault upon nature! Change the development paradigm. Accept >> and oblige nature friendly development discourses for the overall interest >> of the human civilization. >> >> WILL YOU PAY HEED TO THIS CALL OF THE HOUR ! >> >> Angikar Bangladesh Foundation, >> > > > > > > > > > > > Uttam Kumar Borthakur > > _______________________________________________ > assam mailing list > [email protected] > http://assamnet.org/mailman/listinfo/assam_assamnet.org _______________________________________________ assam mailing list [email protected] http://assamnet.org/mailman/listinfo/assam_assamnet.org
