That's all fine and well Mark until it comes to your CFI and ultimately Chris
Thorpe to authorise your operations as a pilot.
Sure every standards position holder could use the statement
("I don’t care about accident rates in aviation generally. I care about my
personal accident rate.I can control my personal culture, and certain parts of
my environment. I can influence, but not control, the culture of those around
me")
Naturally no-one would sign off your AFR, form 2 or aircraft certification
because that would require them making a statistical risk based analysis on you
and your standards, in no time and we would all be grounded.
At some point some poor bunny has to put their neck on the block and be
prepared to look your wife and kids in the eye and say. " I conducted his AFR
as required by a approved revalidation program, a program that is authorised by
an authority that has been shown to lower the risk of sailplane flying. I am
terribly sorry and devastated that he has had a fatal accident however he
deliberately chose to -insertSOPbreachhere- and that substantially increased
the risk to his operation. My sign off on his AFR was very clear in the
expectation to follow the guidance given by those that authorise our operation.
Statistics and accident rates are important, it doesn't matter how they are
presented or even if they are way off.
Statistically no one has ever been wounded by an unloaded gun yet statistically
the number of soundings by people who thought the gun was unloaded is high.
Therefore all you need to know is to treat every gun as if it's loaded, by
doing this you statistically reduce your risk by a massive margin
JJ
Sent from my iPad
> On 11 Mar 2016, at 4:44 AM, Mark Newton <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> On 10 Mar 2016, at 9:38 PM, <[email protected]>
>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Be aware that the accident reporting system some years ago going into the
>> GFA system was significantly deficient. In one state reporting was running
>> at about 50 -70% of the claims rate.
>>
>> If we had not seen a change in the culture, discussions were going to be
>> taken with the insurance industry to obtain actual claims data.
>
> I don’t care about accident rates in aviation generally. I care about my
> personal accident rate.
>
> I can control my personal culture, and certain parts of my environment. I can
> influence, but not control, the culture of those around me.
>
> I’ll go through my life trying to be the centre of a little bubble of
> accident-free aviation, immersed in the frothy statistical noise of whatever
> Teal and Michael are discussing.
>
> When evaluating any question with statistics, one of the first questions to
> ask is whether your sample is reflective of your population. I’m a sample
> size of 1 in a population of 1. Everything outside that is pretty
> uninteresting to me.
>
> - mark
>
>
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