Don't call the kettle black (if you are a pot)! Actually the accuracy of the poll is independent of the total number of glider pilots, but relates to the numbers in the poll itself.
It doesn't matter if it's 31 out of 2000 or 31 out of 2 million The accuracy is given by 1 / Sqr Root (sample size) i.e. 1 / Sqr Root 31 = about 18% error which is a bit rough So Ron's results indicate, assuming a representative sample, that of ALL the GFA members some 84% would be in favour - with an 18% error, so even with the worst error would still have the majority in favour. Election-type polls typically involve only 1600 or so samples to give a 2.5% error, which is pretty good. And that 1600 samples is out of 10,000,000 voters (guess) that's only 0.016%, much less than Ron's 1.5% ratio The issue is, of course, are those 31 people who voted representative, not that it is only 31 out of 2000 pilots. David >-----Original Message----- >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] On Behalf Of >Graeme Cant >Sent: Friday, 21 June 2002 1:57 AM >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: Re: [aus-soaring] RPL results > > >>From: "Ronald E Baker" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >>The results at 5pm EST stand at 5 no and 26 yes for a RPL, >plus one who >>thinks clubs should issue licenses! I think the situation is >pretty clear >>that a RPL should be the way to go. Cheers, Ron Baker. > >Give us a break, Ron. You're not that statistically >illiterate! Your 31 >voters are somewhere around 1.5% of glider pilots in this country. > >I'm tempted to run a poll on whether Ron's poll was a dopey idea. I'm >pretty sure I'd get a majority that it was - largely from all >those who >disagree with Ron's obvious leaning. > >I think rational discussion is a better basis for decision making. > >Graeme Cant > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at >http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > >-- > * You are subscribed >to the aus-soaring mailing list. > * To Unsubscribe: send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > * with "unsubscribe aus-soaring" in the body of the message > * or with "help" in the body of the message for more information. > -- * You are subscribed to the aus-soaring mailing list. * To Unsubscribe: send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] * with "unsubscribe aus-soaring" in the body of the message * or with "help" in the body of the message for more information.
