On Fri, 2006-11-10 at 10:12 +1000, Mike Borgelt wrote:
> 
> Note that your personal risk of a non FLARM interaction goes down 
> linearly as the percentage of FLARM equipped gliders increases if you 
> have a FLARM. 

That's the important point though for people considering opting in to
the FLARM system: if you have one, and 50% of gliders have them, you
have 50% effectiveness.

Obviously if you don't have FLARM, it's not going to help you, so your
stats are misleadingly pessimistic there as you are assuming the chance
you have a FLARM is proportional to the entire fleet having one.

Since many of the early adopters have been competition pilots,
experienced XC pilots, and busy clubs, the effectiveness is probably
even greater than a country-wide poll would suggest as there are many
gliders in remote clubs that rarely fly or rarely fly cross country, and
thereby don't normally pose as much of a risk to other gliders.





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