There's an interesting if tangential article by glider pilot and cryptographer Martin Hellmann who helped re-invent public key cryptography (some time after it was invented at GCHQ by James Ellis). In this he states:
>> While most experienced glider pilots sometimes do low passes (and some race >> finishes require them), I've opted not to because I regard them as a 99.9% >> safe maneuver – which is not as safe as it sounds. A 99.9% safe maneuver is >> one you can execute safely 999 times out of a thousand, but one time in a >> thousand it can kill you. >> Even though they are clearly equivalent, one chance in a thousand of dying >> sounds a lot riskier than 99.9% safe. The perspective gets worse when it's >> recognized that the fatality rate is one in a thousand per execution of the >> maneuver. If a pilot does a 99.9% safe maneuver 100 times, he stands roughly >> a 10% chance of being killed. Worse, the fear that he feels the first few >> times dissipates as he gains confidence in his skill. But that confidence is >> really complacency, which pilots know is our worst enemy. You only have to look at the statistics from the Alps in France to see that experience counts for little when flying near the hard stuff, whether it is at ground level or 12,000'. A low finish for me is at 1500' D _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list [email protected] To check or change subscription details, visit: http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring
