Great discussion, Sergio and Tom!

> I now think my reasoning and conclusions are based on a false premise: that 
> BU block size policies for miners can be heterogeneous.


Right, miners who set their block size limits (BSL) above OR below the 
"effective BSL" are disadvantaged.  Imagine that we plot the distribution (by 
hash power) for all miners' BSLs.  We might get a chart that looks like this:

http://imgur.com/a/tWNr6 <http://imgur.com/a/tWNr6>

In this chart, the "effective BSL" is defined as the largest block size that no 
less than half the hash power will accept.  

If a block is mined with a size Q that is less than the "effective BSL," then 
all the hash power with BSLs between BSL_min and Q will be forked from the 
longest chain (until they update their software if they're running Core or 
until their acceptance depth is hit if they're running BU).  This wastes these 
miners' hash power.  

However, if a block is mined with a size Q that is greater than the effective 
BSL, then all the hash power with BSLs between Q and BSL_max will temporarily 
be mining on a "destined to be orphaned" chain.  This also wastes these miners' 
hash power.  

Therefore, it is in the best interest of miners to all set the same block size 
limit (and reliably signal in their coinbase TX what that limit is, as done by 
Bitcoin Unlimited miners).  

We have empirical evidence the miners in fact behave this way: 

(1) No major miner has ever set his block size limit to less than 1 MB (not 
even those such as Luke-Jr who think 1 MB is too big) because doing so would 
just waste money.  

(2) After switching to Bitcoin Unlimited, both ViaBTC and the Bitcoin.com pool 
temporarily set their BSLs to 2 MB and 16 MB, respectively (of course keeping 
their _generation limit_ at 1MB).  However, both miners quickly reduced these 
limits back to 1 MB when they realized how it was possible to lose money in an 
attack scenario.  (This actually surprised me because the only way they could 
lose money is if some _other_ miner wasted even more money by purposely mining 
a destined-to-be-orphaned block.)   

The follow-up article I'm working on is about the topics we're discussing now, 
particularly about how Bitcoin Unlimited's “node-scale” behavior facilitates 
the emergence of a fluid and organic block size limit at the network scale.  
Happy to keep continue with this current discussion, however.

Best regards
Peter

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