Good morning Ittay,

> The analysis in our MAD-HTLC paper shows that when all players are 
rational (i.e., make the best decisions), and have the greater strategy space 
(which is easy to achieve, 150 Loc), the subgame-perfect-equilibrium strategy 
(this is like Nash-equilibrium for dynamic 
games https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subgame_perfect_equilibrium) for even 
relatively-small fee is to support the attack. Putting it in game-theory terms 
-- strategy "exclude-Alice-until-timeout-then-include-Bob" results with higher 
utility than strategy "include-Alice-Tx-now" (and by definition, 
"include-Alice-Tx-now" does not dominante  
"exclude-Alice-until-timeout-then-include-Bob").

It may be helpful to think in terms of Prisoner Dilemma.


               | cooperate | betray
    -----------+-----------+---------
    cooperate  | -1, -1    | 0, -3
    -----------+-----------+---------
    betray     | -3, 0     | -2, -2

"include-Alice-Tx-now" imposes a greater cost on those playing 
"exclude-Alice-until-timeout-then-include-Bob" players, than the benefit that 
both miners play "exclude-Alice-until-timeout-then-include-Bob".

Basically, "cooperate" == "exclude-Alice-until-timeout-then-include-Bob", 
"betray" == "include-Alice-Tx-now".

One way to get around this is to invoke Iterated Prisoner Dilemma, but that 
requires that miners can identify other miners and to be able to act 
accordingly to how those other miners have acted in the past.
The entire point of Bitcoin mining is to allow strong anonymity of miners (not 
that this commonly happens in practice, given the habit of putting identifying 
information in coinbases).

Another way would be to have a higher system that polices its constituents and 
ensures that every miner plays "exclude-Alice-until-timeout-then-include-Bob", 
and punishes "include-Alice-Tx-now".
But that would be equivalent to a centralized cartel, and would be the death of 
Bitcoin anyway, at which point, all Bitcoin tokens will be worthless.


Regards,
ZmnSCPxj

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