@Aj Your steps seem reasonable. I definitely agree step one (talking to each other) is obviously the ideal solution, when it works.
Step 2 (futures market) is the option I would say I understand the least. In any case, a futures market seems like it only incorporates the opinions/predictions of the group of people willing to bet money on things like this. This is likely to be a rather small group of particular types of people. I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the theories that betting rings like this are good at predicting against the inherent selection bias of the group of betting individuals. Going just by number of individuals (or probably even by amount of currency risked) this seems like a futures market would inherently be a small and biased group. Potentially useful, but I wouldn't assume that it could be taken stand-alone as a proxy for consensus. I'm curious what you think about a coin-weighted poll like I suggested here <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-May/019022.html> being added to that list of steps? Surely this would be a broader group of people than a futures market, tho still obviously a group subject to selection bias. @jeremy drops the bomb. I'm sure Jorge will be running this within the year. On Tue, Mar 15, 2022 at 12:25 PM Jeremy Rubin via bitcoin-dev < bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote: > Boker tov bitcoin devs, > > A mechanism of soft-forking against activation exists. What more do you >> want? >> > > Agreed -- that should be enough. > > > >> Are we supposed to write the code on behalf of this hypothetical group of >> users who may or may not exist for them just so that they can have a node >> that remains stalled on Speedy Trial lockin? >> > That simply isn't reasonable, but if you think it is, I invite you to >> create such a fork. >> > > Disagree. > > It is a reasonable ask. > > I've done it in about 40 lines of python: > https://github.com/jeremyrubin/forkd > > Merry Christmas Jorge, please vet the code carefully before running. > > Peace, > > Jeremy > _______________________________________________ > bitcoin-dev mailing list > bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org > https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev >
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