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Blog For Arizona
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Obama-mentum rapidly closing in on McCain in Arizona!
Posted: 28 Oct 2008 11:12 PM CDT
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BlogForArizona/~3/435128563/obama-mentum-rapidly-closing-in-on-mccain-in-arizona.html
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Some recent polling in Arizona shows that the presidential race has narrowed to
single digits, even though Obama has run a low-key grassroots operation in
Arizona with little media presence. We are a bottom-tier priority state because
we have the misfortune of being John McCain's home state. That sucks!
The Rasmussen (GOP leaning) Poll had McCain up by 21 points at the end of
September (I thought it was an outlier poll at the time). But if you were to
take their numbers at face value, Obama has shown phenomenal momentum in
rapidly closing in on McCain in Arizona. At this rate, Obama can overtake
McCain by Election Day.
>From Pollster.com: 2008 Arizona Presidential General Election
Pollster
Dates
N/Pop
McCain
Obama
Barr
Nader
Undecided
Other
Margin
N. Arizona U
10/18-27/08
600 RV
49
41
-
-
8
-
+8R
Rasmussen
10/26/08
500 LV
51
46
-
-
2
1
+5R
Myers Res/Grove (D)
10/23-24/08
600 LV
44
40
2
3
3
-
+4R
Zimmerman-MrktngIntell
10/16-19/08
408 LV
44
42
2
2
10
-
+2R
And from Daily Kos:
Rasmussen. 10/26. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/29 results)
McCain (R) 51 (59)
Obama (D) 46 (38)
Zimmeran & Associates and Marketing Intelligence. 10/16-19. Likely voters, MoE
4.9% (No trend lines)
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 42
Myers Research & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend
lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
Bruce Merrill is supposed to have an ASU/Cronkite Eight poll out this week.
Daily Kos revealed that its R2K pollsters are in the field this week and will
report an Arizona poll by the end of the week as well.
NBC's political team has changed Arizona to a "Leans" McCain state, as has Real
Clear Politics and Pollster.com. Fox News political analyst Dick Morris has
Arizona as a "tossup."Morris Maps the Election
Note to the Obama campaign: you may want to reconsider your strategy and show
us some love this week to help Arizonan's shock McCain in his own backyard. How
about some walk pieces or direct mail for the big GOTV weekend? How about a
campaign visit instead of the fly-overs between Nevada and New Mexico? You can
send us Bill Clinton, like Senator Kerry did in 2004, or send Hillary Clinton -
or send both. I don't care. Just show us the love, man! And Arizonans will
return the love.
A little more presence in this state will help Democrats pick up two more
congressional seats by putting Ann Kirkpatrick in CD 1 and Bob Lord in CD 3
over the top. Let's turn Arizona blue!
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The state of the presidential race with one week to go
Posted: 28 Oct 2008 03:00 PM CDT
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BlogForArizona/~3/435070813/the-state-of-the-presidential-race-with-one-week-to-go.html
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The national polling data has been remarkably stable for well over a month now,
with most of the major polls showing Obama fluctuating in a range of 49-53% and
McCain fluctuating in a range of 40-46%. The daily tracker polls show some
statistical noise with occasional movement of a point or two on any given day,
but over the long-term it has averaged out and remained stable. McCain has not
demonstrated any momentum to close the gap.
>From Talking Points Memo TPM Track Composite (10/27/08):
• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a
52%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a
52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error,
unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error,
unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to
a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a
49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their
sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.0%, a lead of 7.2 points, compared to the
51.2%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
The new Pew Research Center Poll is out today (10/28/08) showing McCain's
Support Continues Downward Spiral:
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin... This is the fourth
consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging
down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the
same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed
to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.
The new Pew Research Center Poll also shows Obama Now Leading McCain In Red
Swing States:
Barack Obama is now narrowly leading John McCain among voters in the 10
battleground states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.
The poll finds that among those voters, Obama is now up 47%-43%, which is
within the margin of error, but still noteworthy. In the past few weeks Obama
has steadily gained, and now passed, McCain among these voters.
These battleground state results are confirmed in the latest Rasmussen (GOP
leaning) Swing-States Poll Rasmussen Reports™.
• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from
late last week.
• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last
week.
These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.
American elections are decided by the Electoral College, however (just ask
President Al Gore). It takes 270 electoral votes to win. So where do the
electoral vote projections stand with one week to go?
Nate Silver, the preeminent baseball statitician who has turned his number
crunching skills to analyzing poll data at www.fivethirtyeight.com currently
projects Obama at 351.1 and McCain at 186.9.
Chris Cilizza of The Fix blog Pick Your President - 2008 Election Contest at
the Washington Post similarly projects Obama 349 and McCain 189.
>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President - Predict the winner of the 2008
>presidential election.
The RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map currently projects Obama 306, McCain 157,
and toss-up states 75. The Pollster.com - 2008 Electoral Map projects Obama
306, McCain 142 and toss-up states 90.
Chuck Todd at the First Read blog at MSNBC McCain's map blues is the most
conservative prognosticator in his electoral projections, writing that "One
week before the election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163
advantage a week ago. As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving
Colorado and Virginia into Obama’s column is this: If Obama wins those two
states, plus Nevada, he can still get to 270 -- even if he loses Florida, Ohio,
and Pennsylvania."
No candidate this far down this late in an election has ever come back to win.
Moreover, unlike Ronald Reagan in 1980, there is no apparent surge (sweet
irony) of momentum to McCain late in the campaign. All the momentum is with
Barack Obama in the battleground states, all of which were red states in 2004.
Obama is playing offense. It is only a question of how big his final electoral
vote margin will be, not whether Obama will win. He will.
There is evidence that the McCain-Palin ticket has proven to be a drag on GOP
house and senate candidates in the battle of their lives. There is no coattail
effect from McCain, but more importantly, there is no bottom-up support for GOP
house and senate candidates aiding McCain. The numbers are beginning to gel
into a wave election landslide for the Democrats.
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