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Blog For Arizona
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Links for 2008-11-02 [del.icio.us]
Posted: 02 Nov 2008 11:00 PM CST
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BlogForArizona/~3/440647901/mbryan
Howard Dean will be campaigning in Arizona tomorrow
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With friends like this, who needs enemies?
Posted: 02 Nov 2008 07:15 PM CST
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BlogForArizona/~3/440362404/with-friends-like-this-who-needs-enemies.html
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
John McCain doesn't want you to know that Vice President Dick Cheney recently
endorsed him for president, joining George W. Bush in endorsing him for
president. The Obama campaign thought you would like to know. No McBush third
term!
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A Democratic "Wave" Election
Posted: 02 Nov 2008 07:17 PM CST
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BlogForArizona/~3/440344292/a-democratic-wave-election.html
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Back in May, Michael Bryan posted a piece entitled Blue Tsunami. Michael
predicted that "I'm expecting a generational re-alignment. Not only will Obama
win, he'll win huge: Reagan vs. Mondale huge. Not only will Democrats defend
their Congressional majority, they will extend it by at least 30 more seats in
the House (maybe as many as 60) and by 5 or more in the Senate."
Michael's other fearless predictions: "Democrats will make pick-ups in AZ-1 and
AZ-3 and successfully, even handily, defend recent gains in AZ-5 and AZ-8." And
"I also expect new Democratic majorities in state houses across the country,
including Arizona. We are only 4 seats away from taking the Arizona House..."
Michael's early election projections appear to be not far off the mark from
what is expected to occur on Election Day.
This election is going to be a Democratic "wave" election that ushers in a
political realignment. The Reagan Revolution is at an end (George W. Bush
should be credited with ending it).
Movement conservatism laissez-faire economics, repackaged as free market, no
government regulation, greed is good "Reagonomics" has collapsed under its own
fraudulent weight in spectacular fashion. Laissez-faire economics ended in a
Great Depression, and Reaganomics has brought us to the brink of another
depression. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. Or as
George W. Bush would say, "we won't get fooled again!" The disciples of Ayn
Rand, Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan should forever be banished into exile
(I hear Guantanamo will be available soon).
While Barack Obama will win big on Tuesday, Michael's prediction of a
Reagan-Mondale electoral college vote was a bit over-exuberant (Mondale won
only Minnesota and D.C.) One can dream. Most prognosticators are projecting the
mid-300s range in electoral votes. Still a decisive win that will give Barack
Obama a mandate for his policies when coupled with increased Democratic
majorities in the House and Senate (and in state legislatures). This election
is a referendum rejecting the tenants of movement conservatism, despite what
the conservative pundits who have made their living peddling this snake oil
will claim in their post-mortems of this election. Their day is over.
Democrats should comfortably pick up 20-25 seats in the House of
Representatives, and depending upon voter turnout in "red" Republican
districts, conceivably it could go as high as 30-35 seats. In the modern era of
computerized Gerrymandering, however, a 60 seat shift is highly improbable.
Sorry, Mike.
Michael was too conservative with his Senate projections. The political parlor
game today is whether the Democrats can pick up nine seats for a 60 seat
filibuster-proof majority in the Senate to put an end to the era of Republican
obstructionism. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com charts the Senate races:
Democrats are certain to pick up six Senate seats.
Kay Hagan has led in North Carolina since September, and Liddy Dole's
outrageous religious attack ad has been roundly condemned by both Republicans
and Democrats alike. The ad backfired. Hagan is favored to get us to 7.
Norm Coleman has a slight lead in some polls in Minnesota. He has run the
nastiest campaign of the year, reflecting his personality. Coleman sued Al
Franken over an ad this past week (as he has done in every race he has run -
this kind of gimmick quickly gets old) and he has other legal issues which have
surfaced late in the campaign. Minnesota has an independent party candidate
complicating this race. A big Obama turnout might be enough coattails to carry
Franken over the top (and Minnesota always has high voter turnout). Franken can
get us to 8.
Heavy African-American voter turnout in Georgia, Mississippi and Kentucky
could provide the ninth Senate seat, despite the Democratic candidates trailing
slightly in recent polls. But what it will really take is for Southern white
voters to finally pull their heads out of their ass and stop voting against
their own economic best interests (Why the economy fares much better under
Democrats) instead of reflexively voting Republican for so-called "social
issues" (race and religion).
George W. Bush is on track to leave office without creating one net job during
his eight years in office; his tax giveaways to the wealthiest top 5% of
Americans has doubled our national debt to almost $11 trillion (ask yourself,
what does America have to show for it?); the "ponzi scheme" financial services
economy he built to replace the manufacturing economy Republicans shipped
overseas in the name of "free trade" has collapsed and taxpayers saddled with
the bad debt; our economy lies in ruins; and he started two wars that he failed
to pay for, and he failed to finish. What person in their right mind would vote
for Republican enablers of George W. Bush like Mitch McConnell and Saxby
Chambliss? If Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi elect a Democratic senator,
that giant sucking sound you hear Tuesday night will be Southern white voters
pulling their heads out of their ass, marking the end of the decades-old
Republican "Southern Strategy."
Here in Arizona, I am cautiously optimistic that Democrats will not only take
the House in the Arizona Legislature for the first time since 1966, but
Democrats also have an even chance of capturing the Senate as well, or at least
a 15-15 tie (which will allow the Democrats to control the Senate).
Harry Mitchell (AZ-5) and Gabriel Giffords (AZ-8) will comfortably win
reelection to their congressional seats. Ann Kirkpatrick will be a Democratic
pick-up in AZ-1. The real action is in AZ-3 where Democrat Bob Lord is in a
dogfight with arch-conservative John Shadegg. Helping Bob win in AZ-3 should be
a top priority for Democrats.
Finally, John McCain may survive a scare from Obama on his home turf, but his
margin will only be in the single digits, adding insult to the injury of his
electoral defeat. A loss to Obama would be a humiliating rejection by his
fellow Arizonans who know him best.
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