On Wed, Apr 11, 2001 at 09:47:33PM +1200, K. Feete wrote:
> Come on, Darryl, spot the logical fallacy.
>
> You say: there is no market for more food.
>
> Then you say: Therefore, no one must be hungry.
I missed that second part, Kat. Would you quote it from Darryl's post,
please?
> Ever the optimist. I wish I had my textbooks here, since as far as I
> recall they don't agree with you.
Check the CIA World Fact Book
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
The (birth rate - death rate) for most 1st world countries is less
than 1%. (2000 est.) And I didn't look up the historical data, but I'm
guessing that it has been coming down.
Just clicking on a few countries, I found 4 where the death rate exceeds
the birth rate (Russia, Germany, Italy, and Sweden)
Incidentally, most of the world's population increase is presently
coming from India and China, who collectively have a birth rate that
exceeds death rate by 28 million per year (16 million of that is from
India, it seems China is making progress with its 1 child rule).
> Um, as far as I can remember, *two* cases- Sweden and somebody
> else. And not all other first world countries are at zero population
> growth. The US, for example, I'm pretty sure is at +1.2, and most of
> the rest are the same, which (if you do your averages) does *not*
> equal "essentially zero". The growth rate of first world countries is
> significantly smaller but still positive.
I found 4 in just a few minutes of clicking (see above). The US birth
rate exceeds the death rate by only 0.55% (2000 est.). If you take into
account trends and how small the growth is presently, I think Darryl is
right to call it "essentially zero".
> Whoa- do I hear *falling* world population? Now how did we get
> *here*? Darryl, Darryl, Darryl... even assuming your very optimistic
> prediction that in a few generations all third-world countries
> will reach the growth rates of first-world countries is true, the
> *first-world* countries aren't at zero yet, much *less* at negative
> values. This isn't optimism; this is wishful thinking.
Many first world countries are near zero, and decreasing, and at least
4 ARE negative. Extrapolation is always prone to error, but Darryl's
extrapolation looks much more likely to me than yours, Kat.
--
"Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.com/
