At 09:10 AM 5/30/01 +1000 s346223 wrote:
>Not really that sure about Stratfor, it has been quite inaccurate about
>some events in Asia in the past, i rememeber (both W and SE). Many
>of my Indonesian friends think that Wahid will be replaced by Sukarno's
>daughter, and a return of TNI privileges, unfortunately.
Well, they are on a roll right now.... today, they predicted that
stagflation will hit Europe within the year. Its rather unusual for them
to make such easily testable and verifiable predictions, so it will be fun
to keep track (and hope that they wrong.)
>As for a another Yugoslavia though...
>The only parts
>of Indonesia that have any really prospect of breaking away though are
>Aceh and Irian Jaya, largely because they have a history preceding the
>formation of Indonesia.
Yes, Aceh and Irian Jaya would be the first to go independent, but I would
not be surprised to see Islamic fundamentalists try and carve out a slice
somewhere as well. Additionally, separatism isn't even required to make
the Moluccas and Kalimantan erupt into full-fledged civil war - the ethnic
hatreds are enough for that.
JDG
__________________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - ICQ #3527685
"The point of living in a Republic after all, is that we do not live by
majority rule. We live by laws and a variety of institutions designed
to check each other." -Andrew Sullivan 01/29/01
