> Behalf Of John D. Giorgis
>Russell said:
> >As for a another Yugoslavia though...
> >The only parts
> >of Indonesia that have any really prospect of breaking away though are
> >Aceh and Irian Jaya, largely because they have a history preceding the
> >formation of Indonesia.
>
And John replied
> Yes, Aceh and Irian Jaya would be the first to go independent, but I would
> not be surprised to see Islamic fundamentalists try and carve out a slice
> somewhere as well. Additionally, separatism isn't even required to make
> the Moluccas and Kalimantan erupt into full-fledged civil war - the ethnic
> hatreds are enough for that.
>
I think Irian Jaya will be disentangled from Indonesia within the next 10
years, regardless of government in Jakarta. The main thing will be how many
bodies are needed in the process. Although the last thing Australia needs is
to have to bail out Papua New Guinea if they support the Irianese. Most
likely though, the economic drain of trying to incorporate Irian Jaya will
just become too much to continue.
Aceh I don't know about. It is afterall part of the main island of Java -
the western end. Much much harder to become separate than a standalone
island like Borneo, or a continually troublesome and distinctly different
"province" like Irian.
Economically, Bali is probably in a position to secede as its tourism
industry is a real cash cow. Most of the owners, of course, are Jakarta
based however. The Balinese are culturally very different from the rest of
Indonesia, being Hindu rather than Moslem.
If East Timor and Australia come up with an equitable renegotiation of the
Timor Gap treaty (definitely one of Australia's low points in diplomacy of
the last 20 years) then East Timor will become an oil/gas-rich little
nation. May just tempt West Timor to want in, especially as the Indonesian
income from the gas/oil fields is likely to bypass West Timor, going
straight to the central Java-based Indonesian economy. Just like in
Kalimantan.
Brett
