"John D. Giorgis" wrote:
> The truth of the matter is that the oil wells will dry up slowly over the
> course of years. As the wells dry up, oil will become more scarce,
> causing the price to go up. This increase in prices will cause investment
> in other energy sources all by themselves, without any need for government
> interference.
Actually, it's a whole lot more gradual and drawn out than that. The price will
be less affected by scarcity as by cost of recovery. At the moment, most of the
oil we're using is obtained relatively easily, a lot of it coming up under it's
own pressure. As we start to have to pump sea water into the wells to force it
out, as we start to rely on wells that are currently regarded as too expensive
to operate, as we tap reserves of more difficult (to crack and to handle)
crudes, the prices will reflect that, and other energy sources that are
currently regarded as inefficient or too expensive will suddenly be more viable.
Similarly from an environmental point of view, oil will rise in its *bad* status
to *evil* status as we go to more wilderness (and more settled) areas, and as we
start using high cadmium oils, suddenly fields of windmills or nuclear reactors
won't seem as bad.
You only have to look at the size of the average American car between 1965 and
1975 and compare to the average size between 1978 and 1988. Or compare the
average size of cars in countries like USA and Australia where fuel is cheaper
(though I'm currently paying USD2.00/gal) compared to the size of cars in
Europe. Western society will adapt when their wallets force them into it.
Russell Chapman
Brisbane Australia
