----- Original Message -----
From: "J. van Baardwijk" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Brin-L" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2001 2:16 PM
Subject: Re: Landmines RE: US Foreign Policy Re: *DO* we share a
civilization?
> At 21:48 13-8-01 -0500, Dan Minette wrote:
>
> > >If the US Military Intelligence people have done their jobs right,
the US
> >will
> > > know about those plans well before the invasion starts.
> > >
> >
> >And, I'm sure they have some idea of the plans. And, I'm sure that they
> >look for signs. For example, what would you think when a small country
has
> >the second largest special forces group in the world?
>
> Maybe that country thought it was necessary to have a very large special
> forces group. Who are we to dictate to a country the maximum size of such
a
> group? Would the US accept it if Russia would order the US to limit its
> special forces to 100 people?
>
Well, it seems clear that Russia can conclude that the US is not just
interested in protecting mainland US by the investment it has in its ability
to deploy forces all over the world. You suggested that the North Korean
army was just defensive. Their special forces unit is designed to penetrate
behind the enemy lines and attack from the rear. Why in the world would
this be a good idea in a defensive war?
>
> >When they remove all
> >the land mines from their side of the border, and move their troops
towards
> >the border.
>
> Well, it's their own country, they can remove landmines and move troops
all
> they want. You know, rights of sovereign nations and all that.
>
Yes, but you were looking for indications. Why would they remove the land
mines as a defensive move? Why would the move them as an offensive move?
> >When their troops go within the forbidden zone near the border?
>
> Provocation, I'd guess. See how far they can go before the people on the
> other side of the border start shooting. In the case of North Korea,
> probably an attempt to get the US troops to open fire first, which would
> give South Korea a wonderful opportunity to show the world just how
> agressive the US really is.
>
The other logical conclusion is to lower the sensitivity of the US to
incursions.
>
> >Out of curiosity, how is the US to know when the trigger will be pulled
on
> >their plans.
>
> If South Korea actually wants to start an invasion, they'll have to
> schedule a time and date for it (such as: 4 tank batallions will start
> moving from location X towards the border on August 20 at 01:00 hours). If
> the traitors within the South Korean military do their jobs, the US will
> know about it in time (planning the actual invasion will still take a few
> weeks, no matter how many plans you've already made).
>
All that has to happen, once the plans are made, is for the big dude to say
"go." As I've pointed out, with the maneuvers, tanks are moving towards the
border regularly. What's the difference between maneuvers and an actual
invasion? IIRC, that's what drills are often for, so the people are so use
to it, they just keep going when its not a drill. Also, as Gautam has
pointed out, the US has been surprised a number of times.
Yea, I know, you've argued that a "competent" intelligence agency wouldn't
have been surprised. Well, all I can say is that I think, like many jobs,
its harder than it looks.
> I would be surprised if the US military intelligence community *didn't*
> have informants in the inner circle of potentially hostile countries.
> Actually, I wouldn't even be surprised if learned that the US has spies in
> the inner circles of their *allies*.
>
Are you seriously arguing that of the 10 or 20 people closest to the leader
in North Korea include one American spy? No hard feelings, but I think
you've read too many Bond novels. :-)
Dan M.
