On Sat, Jan 19, 2002 at 04:33:24PM -0800, Nick Arnett wrote:

> Perhaps I didn't make it clear that these numbers are for Santa Clara
> County only.  The cost of housing, in particular, has skyrocketed here
> during the period in question.
>
> Your numbers were for the whole country, I assume.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/

But cost of housing is included in the consumer price index, currently
it makes up about 40% of the CPI-U basket. As others have said, you
need to compare unadjusted income versus some cost index (eg., consumer
price index, CPI) or versus something that you are interested in (eg.,
housing, child care). Comparing _inflation-adjusted_ income with some
(vaguely specified) cost of living is silly.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/usri2000.txt

Your point that CPI and cost of living are different is valid. But you
haven't stated what you think is important that is measured by cost of
living that isn't included in CPI.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm

4. Is the CPI a cost-of-living index?

   The CPI frequently is called a cost-of-living index, but it differs
   in important ways from a complete cost-of-living measure. The Bureau
   of Labor Statistics (BLS or the Bureau) has for some time used
   a cost-of-living framework in making practical decisions about
   questions that arise in constructing the CPI. A cost-of-living index
   is a conceptual measurement goal, however, not a straightforward
   alternative to the CPI. A cost-of-living index would measure changes
   over time in the amount that consumers need to spend to reach a
   certain "utility level" or "standard of living." Both the CPI and a
   cost-of-living index would reflect changes in the prices of goods and
   services, such as food and clothing, that are directly purchased in
   the marketplace; but a complete cost-of-living index would go beyond
   this to also take into account changes in other governmental or
   environmental factors that affect consumers' well-being. It is very
   difficult to determine the proper treatment of public goods, such as
   safety and education, and other broad concerns, such as health, water
   quality, and crime that would comprise a complete cost-of-living
   framework. More.


Note that the (national average) CPI increased by about 23% from
Jan. 1993 to Jan. 2001

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

If Santa Clara were equal to the national average, than the numerical
incomes of the 20th percentile would have increased by 24% from
Jan. 1993 to Jan. 2001. You quote cost of living as having increased by
20% in the Santa Clara region. For the 20th percentile to be worse off
compared to cost of living, you need to show that the CPI, or whatever
they used to "inflation adjust" the incomes, increased by less than 19%
over that time period in that area.

I think that the best point you made is about the cost of child care
rising 5 times faster than household income. I think that is certainly
worth discussing. Was any explanation given for the cause of this? Or
ideas on how to solve that problem? I remember reading that child care
is very expensive these days because of liability and fear of lawsuits.
Perhaps the current childcare regulations and expectations result in
inefficient childcare operations, and we need to find ways to make the
regulations encourage more efficiency? This is obviously a sticky issue
because efficiency and perceived safety are often at odds. But perhaps
it is possible to come up with a system that is both safe and efficient?
Obviously, if you have to devote 1 (well-qualified, unblemished record)
person to watching 1 child, it is going to be expensive. What can be
done to make it less so? The grade-school system in the US seems to do
an acceptable job, in most cases, of keeping children safe. Perhaps it
can be used as a model for daycare?


-- 
"Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>       http://www.erikreuter.com/

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