> From: Ronn Blankenship <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> At 22:31 17-02-02 -0600, you wrote: > >A futurist's 'timeline' for emerging technologies. Much more bleak than > >I have ever expoused > >. > > > >http://www.btexact.com/white_papers/downloads/WP106.pdf > > What specifically do you find "bleak" about it? > > (Not necessarily disagreeing, just wanting to hear your reasoning. Or that > of anyone else who read the timeline.) A few points: Computer agent personal shoppers 2003 Domestic appliances with remote (networked) intelligence 2003 Toys with network based intelligence 2004 Confessions to AI priest 2004 Security Barbie used for locating lost offspring 2004 Shopping Barbie acts as personal shopper for children 2004 Computers that write most of their own software 2005 Intelligent robotic pets 2005 AI chatbots indistinguishable from people by 95 % of population 2005 First artificial electronic life 2006 Software trained rather than written? 2006 Domestic appliances with personality and talking head interface 2007 People have some virtual friends but don't know which ones 2007 AI students 2007 AI models used extensively in business management 2010 Artificial Nervous System for autonomous robots 2010 Highest earning celebrity is synthetic 2010 AI houses which react to occupants 2010 25 % of TV celebrities synthetic 2010 Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities 2011 Most software written by machine 2011 Home manager computer 2011 Machine use of human-like memorising, recognising, learning 2012 Computer agents start being thought of as colleagues instead of tools 2013 Satellite location devices implanted into pets 2015 Machine use of human-like creativity 2015 Leisure activities for intelligent software entities released 2015 Human knowledge exceeded by machine knowledge 2017 Electronic life form given basic rights 2020 Remote control devices built into pets 2020 Ubiquitous embedded intelligence 2020 Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computer 2025 Robots physically and mentally superior to humans 2030 Retinal implants linked to external video cameras 2004 Electronic patient records become valuable data mines 2005 Electronic prescriptions reduce fraud and improve speed 2005 Designer babies 2005 All patients tagged in hospitals 2005 Expert systems used extensively in GP surgeries 2008 Hospitals use virtual queuing systems 2008 Neural networks used for patient appointment management 2008 Devices roaming within blood vessels under own power 2010 Multimedia patient records 2010 Genetic screening widely used 2010 Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records 2010 Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record 2010 Shower body scan 2015 Individual's genome part of their medical record 2015 Many new forms of plants and animals from genetic engineering 2020 Nanobots in toothpaste attack plaque 2020 Artificial brain implants 2025 Genetic, chemical and physiological bases of human behaviour understood 2025 Brain 'add-ons' 2033 Artificial brain 2035 85% of American management personnel are knowledge workers 2005 Nomadic information companies paying no corporation tax 2006 Universal monitoring of business transactions 2008 Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate 2010 Personalised degrees quantised to individual lectures 2010 AI Entity passes GCSE 2010 AI Entity passes A Level 2011 Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement 2012 AI Entity gains Degree 2013 AI companies illegally cloned 2013 Academic learning is argued to be unnecessary in the age of smart machines 2013 AI Entity gains Masters Degree 2014 Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation 2015 Integrated taxation in all transactions 2015 Police force privatised in many nations 2015 AI Entity gains PhD 2016 AI teachers get better results than most human teachers 2017 AI Entity awarded Nobel Prize 2018 Less than 10% of UK workforce in manufacturing 2020 AI Entity sets up higher level prize 2020 Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computers 2025 China GDP overtakes EU GDP 2015 Personalised adverts on TV and Radio 2005 All domestic animals tagged 2010 Insect-like robots used for crop pollination 2012 Artificial precipitation induction & control 2035 Global environmental management corporations 2040 Devices registered in homes and won't work if stolen 2003 Smart paint available (contains chips) 2004 Emotional objects, switches etc around home 2007 Mood sensitive light bulbs 2010 Chips in packaging control cooking 2010 Neighbourhood video surveillance networks 2010 Domestic positioning systems 2012 Electronic response based on conversational inference 2013 Robotic plant care with health monitoring chips on plants 2015 Nanotechnology plants 2025 Automatic music composition in any style 2002 Use of talking head technology for conferencing 2002 Cheap miniature cameras cause social backlash 2005 Toy soldiers with video camera eyes enrich play 2005 People reduce tax liability by being partially paid in information products 2007 Net chat sites insist on proof of identity 2008 Replacement of people leads to anti-technology subculture 2008 Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem 2010 Shadow democracy used in community networks 2012 Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger) 2020 Creation of The Matrix 2025 Experience recording 2035 Talking head technology used in public terminals 2005 TV internet users overtakes computer-based users 2005 Computer link to biological sensory organs 2018 Thought recognition as everyday input means 2025 Full direct brain link 2030 1Bn Bluetooth devices worldwide 2005 Self organising adaptive integrated circuits 2007 Use of nanotechnology 2015 Solid State replacement for CD 2005 Computers used for creativity enhancement 2010 Supercomputer as fast as human brain 2010 DNA storage device 2010 Desktop computer as fast as human brain 2015 AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain 2018 Parallel computer with 1000 million processors 2020 Totally automated factories 2007 Anthropomorphic robots used for factory jobs 2008 Robotic security & fire guards 2008 Insect-like robots used in warfare 2010 Self monitoring infrastructures using smart materials and sensors. 2010 Robots for almost any job in home or hospital 2012 Fleet of garden robots for plant and lawn care and tidying 2014 Housework robots - fetch, carry, clean & tidy, organise etc. 2015 Housework robots for cleaning, washing etc 2016 Self diagnostic self repairing robots 2017 More robots than people in developed countries 2025 Face recognition in public video surveillance systems 2001 Crime and terrorism mainly computer based 2005 War fought over water supply 2005 Data mining use in trials 2007 Household access by facial recognition 2010 Universal ID cards in UK 2010 Extensive use of electronics to monitor police behaviour 2010 Gene dependent weaponry 2010 Attacks based on facilitating natural disasters 2010 ID cards replaced by biometric scanning 2015 Emotion control chips used to control criminals 2030 Asteroid diversion used as weapon 2040 Automatic measurement of body using laser scanning booths in shops 2002 Laser body scanning units in clothes shops 2002 Cash badges 2004 Shopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets 2005 Global electronic currency in use 2005 Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash 2007 In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides 2013 Personal taxation at point of sale 2015 Weapon systems based on Ionespheric heating 2010 Production, storage and use of antimatter 2025 Cordless home networks using Bluetooth, Piano or Jini 2001 Go-anywhere personal numbering 2002 Video surveillance built into phone boxes 2005 Intelligent cruise control keeping distance automatically 2001 Cellular phone locations used in traffic management system 2004 All new cars fitted with positioning systems as standard 2007 GPS and engine management systems linked to limit speed automatically 2010 Emotional jewellery 2002 Cameras built into glasses recording what we see 2004 Emotion badges 2005 Thought recognition used in sleep enhancement 2015 Computer enhanced dreaming 2020 Emotion control devices 2025 Dream link technology 2030 Asteroid or comet hits earth BC Massive solar flare wipes out life on earth BC Natural evolution of superbug BC Climatic Instability, Turn For The Worst BC Extraordinary US West Coast Natural Disaster BC First Unambiguous Contact with Extraterrestrial Life -- The Arrival of ETs BC Human Mutation BC Ice cap breaks up -- Oceans rise one hundred feet BC Mass Migrations BC Return of the Messiah AD Another Chernobyl 1950 Collapse of the United Nations 1950 Global nuclear war 1960 Environmental pressure causes evolution of superbug 1980 Aids or similarly deadly disease mutates and becomes transmittable by air 1990 Bugs resistant to all known antibiotics 1990 Rules Change: Economic and/or Environmental "War Criminals" Are Prosecuted 1995 Terrorists Go Biological 1995 US Economy Fails or collapse of the dollar 1995 Civil nuclear war 2000 1 Based on an original idea by John Petersen, The Arlington Institute Wearable technology Addendum:Wild cards (that could happen almost anytime1) Global economic collapse causes mass starvation and conflict 2000 Global civil war 2000 Space exploration creates superbug 2000 Civil War Between Soviet States Goes Nuclear 2000 Collapse of World's Fisheries 2000 Computer/Chip/Operating System Maker Blackmails Country or World 2000 End of Intergenerational Solidarity 2000 Gulf or Jet Stream Shifts Location Permanently 2000 International Financial Collapse 2000 Large-scale lengthy disruption of national electrical supply 2000 Major Break in Alaskan pipeline - Significant ecological damage 2000 Major Chaos in Africa 2000 Nuclear Terrorist Attack on United States or Europe 2000 Rise of an American Dictator 2000 Social breakdown in US or Europe 2000 Stock market crash 2000 Human Cloning Perfected, Human Genetic Engineering Arrives 2002 Accidental creation of lethal organism during research 2005 Antitech backlash destroys systems � chaos and starvation 2005 Deliberate biotech self-destruct by malicious biotech researcher 2005 Major genetic engineering accident 2005 Terrorism rises beyond capability of government systems 2005 Transgenic accident 2005 Encryption Invalidated 2005 Hackers Blackmail Federal Reserve 2005 Biotech terrorist attack goes wrong 2010 Evolved crime destroys human systems 2010 Global civil war between cybernations 2010 Hackers wipe out networks, causing chaos and mass starvation 2010 The hostile arrival of ETs detecting our transmissions 2010 Viruses become immune to all known treatments 2010 End of the Nation State 2010 Foetal Sex Selection Becomes the Norm 2010 Computers and robots become superior to humans 2015 Self-aware machine intelligence 2015 Third world exodus destabilises global system 2015 Computers/Robots think like humans 2015 Collapse of the sperm count 2020 Global epidemic with high speed travel and high population density 2020 Global famine caused by manmade environmental change 2020 Hybrid nanotech-organic creatures 2020 International social collapse - widespread civil conflict 2020 Major information systems disruption 2020 Major technology or science research accident 2020 Rise of a global machine dictator 2020 Total social breakdown in US or Europe 2020 Fuel cells replace internal combustion engines 2020 Life Expectancy Approaches 100 2020 Nanotechnology takes off 2020 Megacities cause global epidemic 2025 Nanotech development by individuals 2025 Nanotechnology accident 2025 Networks become conscious and won't co-operate 2025 Second World Nation Demonstrates Development of Nanotech Weapons 2025 Elimination by smart machines - terminator 2030 Nanotechnology war 2030 Humans access net directly, become an integral part of global information system. 2030 No-Carbon Economy Worldwide 2030 Creation of Star Trek's Borg 2040 Fatal climatic instability 2040 Global electromagnetic communications disrupted for foreseeable future 2040 Religious environmentalism destroys environment 2040 Political correctness creates new dark age 2050 Whole generation unable to effectively read, write, think, and work 2050 Human genetic engineering creates hostile super-race 2070 Humans assimilated into net 2075 Invention of elimination phaser 2075 Time travel invented 2075 Faster than light travel 2100 Immortality chip - people move into cyberspace 2100
