"Dan Minette" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > From: "Marvin Long, Jr." <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > On Mon, 18 Feb 2002, The Fool wrote: > > > > ...a very long list of possible technical advances. > > > > Now, I don't find this list bleak (at least not in the technical sense) - > > it strikes me as being wildly optimisitic. Or am I just nuts? > > It actually struck me as so optimistic that I thought it was a parody of > futurists.
It's overly optimistic for the next 10-15 years, then gets massively confusing and contradictory. By 2030 they have AIs that are physically and mentally superior to baseline humans, but keep making predictions past then which seem irrelevant. One silly example: VR overlays on real world: 2008 Holographic TV: 2025 I'm not sure how these differ meaningfully. Once I have retinal displays, why would I bother with a physical holo-TV? Overall, I think they underestimate the effort required to bring some of the new technologies to market, then fail to account for the cross-fertilization of developments. They need to ponder Vinge's Singularity, which appears to arrive around 2035 on their time scale. Joshua
