Alberto said lots of things I agree with and then:

[Argument 1]

> This argument is wrong, because there is a chance that you will
> _not_ be chosen to enter the room any time, because the experiment
> ends when the machine shoots

If the argument is wrong, it's not wrong for that reason because the
question I posed was: "If you're taken into the room, what is the
probability that you get out alive?"

[Argument 2]

> This argument is wrong, too, because it does not consider the
> chance that you will not be chosen to enter the room.

Again, notice the "if" in the question I asked.

Now, if we restrict attention to a particular run then (with probability
1) only a finite number of batches will be taken into the room. If we
just look at such a run, then what is wrong with argument (2)?

Rich
GCU The Confuserator

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