On Sun, Feb 24, 2002 at 12:27:14PM -0000, Alberto Monteiro wrote:

> Err... No. This would be true if the experiment didn't end when the
> machine fires. But when the machine fires, there's a bigger number of
> dead bobies than survivors.

All in the room are killed when the die come up 6-6. They are all
dead bodies! All survive when it does not come up 6-6. They are all
survivors!

> That's the problem with _conditional_ probability.

There is no condition!

I think you are not interpreting the English properly. The people
stand in the room. The dice are cast. If it comes up 6-6, they are
shot. Otherwise they survive. By definition, the probability of survival
for the people who have entered the room is 35/36.


>   A simpler example: 
>   both your grandmothers have dark eyes,
>   both your grandfathers have blue eyes. Both your parents
>   have dark eyes. You have dark eyes. Your wife has dark eyes.
>   Her mother has blue eyes. Your first kid has dark eyes. What
>   is the probability that your _second_ kid has blue eyes?
> 
> If I had asked about your _first_ kid, the answer would be
> a trivial 1/4. But it's not 1/4 for the second :-)

This is irrelevant.

> Parrdom mee, buth I am nought a naytive English speekar.
> I kennt make it moor zplissit

Okay, then. Your answer is wrong! :-)


-- 
"Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>       http://www.erikreuter.com/

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