"The Fool" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >Not all Alien species will be / are unselfish in this way. If fact the >entire point is that the Aliens almost certainly *would* journey for >reasons of colonization and population pressure.
You don't even have to make generalizations or assumptions - given the numbers involved, you only have to say that there a non-zero probabilty that a given species eventually develops self-replicating exploration, it doesn't matter if 99% of the species decide to stay at home or don't like to colonize. ... FWIW, my bets are: http://www.seti-inst.edu/science/drake-bg.html N = R* * fp * ne * fl * fi * fc * L R* = 1 (an estimate c/o http://www.station1.net/douglasjones/drake.htm) fp = 50% (seems to be the going rate) ne = 1% (our system seems to be particularly docile) fl = 90% (yes, very high; I think it's tennacious) fi = 0.01% (yes, very pessimistic) fc = 1% (I'm guessing 90% are aquatic and the rest don't make it) L = 500,000,000 (a guess based on nearly infinite lifespan, the threat due to gamma ray bursters, and the probability of getting past self-destruction to self-replicating explorers) N = 2.25 - that is, there is us and maybe one other on the scene now, but probably just us in MilkyWay. ... While I'm here, check out: http://www.shatters.net/celestia/ This is a GPL'd space explorer tool for Linux/MacOS/Windows that lets you visit stars and known (exo)planets in glorious 3D with a point and click interface. Clicking on a star warps you through space... and the moving starpoints are known stars, not just pixels. Follow tiny Phobos in its orbit around Mars, watch the shadows of the Galilean moons cross the face of Jupiter, traipse over to UpsAnd and skirt the cloud tops of the planets, and just generally have lots of fun. It's written by a friend of mine who's one of the most amazing programmers I've ever met. Joshua _________________________________________________________________ Join the world�s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com
