Gautam Mukunda wrote:
> Gautam Mukunda wrote:
> More interesting is James's Pythagorean formula, which I think I've talked about
> on the list before: WP=RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2) where WP=Winning Percentage,
> RS=Runs Scored, and RA=Runs allowed. That was James's derivation -
> Baseball Prospectus actually developed a slightly more accurate one that
> uses a floating exponent, but it's not worth added complexity here.
> Anyways, that formula suggests that scoring runs and preventing runs from
> being scored are essentially of exactly the same value. A team that scores
> 10 more runs will win exactly as many more games over the long run as a
> team that prevents 10 runs from being scored. It's stunningly accurate.
Makes allot of sense.
It also suggests, btw, that Oakland
> underperformed last year (it should have won more games, based on its RS & RA)
> and Seattle overperformed, lending strength to your argument that Oakland
> will beat Seattle this year.
> Me: Sadly, no I don't. As I said, I don't think there _are_ good defensive
statistics
> out there except for Win Shares,
?
which I don't fully understand. But just
> watching the A's suggests that to me. There outfield is Terrence Long,
> David Justice, and the guy they took from Kansas City last year, right?
Jermane Dye. He's pretty good and should be recovered from his injury about a
month into the season. I hope they don't try to bring him back too fast. He
just started hitting last week and may DH for the first few weeks of the season.
I can't remember his name. Well, Long is in CF, and he's really
> better in right - everyone I've read suggests that Damon was much better.
Damon was better. Long might get a little better, but I'm hoping Bean is in the
market for a good CF.
> David Justice is, at best, a mediocre LF.
I Think they're going to play him in right.
And the RF will be recovering
> from a broken leg, which can't be conducive to his speed. The infield looks
better
> - Chavez is error prone, but that means virtually nothing, and he's athletic
> enough that he should play decent defense.
Gold glover. 10 errors last year and still improving. He's one of my favorites
on the team.
>The same with Tejada.
Tejada is not very far behind the top shortstops in the league offensively, and
has made some amazing plays in the field. If he starts playing well
consistently there will be few that are better (big if). He did have a lot of
errors last year, but played better second half.
> And Pena will almost certainly be an upgrade over Giambi. But I don't have much
I've already heard a few things about the improvement in that regard.
> faith in Randy Velarde's defense, although I do think he is a good 2B. Atrocious
2B is another place we could use more talent.
> was probably too strong a word, in retrospect. I do think their OF
> defense is quite bad, and that this will be a real problem for them - not as
> bad as in the Ben Grieve days, but not as good as last year's either. I may
> be underrating their infield defense.
>
I saw them play shortly after my last message and they _did_ play atrociously.
Sure hope it was just a bad game for them...
--
Doug
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.zo.com/~brighto
"Now people stand themselves next to the righteous
And they believe the things they say are true
They speak in terms of what divides us
To justify the violence they do"
Jackson Browne, It Is One
