OK. So the NL West makes the NL Central look easy. _Anyone_ can win this division - it's a complete tossup. Before I get into the writeups, two stories that some of the baseball fans on the list might find interesting.
The first is about Robbie Alomar. As some of you may recall, three years ago I took a class from George Will. Everyone else wanted to talk to him about politics - I always wanted to talk about baseball :-) Anyways, we were discussing Alomar (still on the Orioles at the time) and he said (I'm quoting - it's not word for word, but very close to it), "I was talking to Alex Rodriguez about Robbie a few weeks ago. Alex told me that Robbie might be the most talented player in the game today, but his problem is that he's not an adult. He could hit .360 if he wanted to, he could hit 30 home runs if he wanted to. But he's not an adult, so he doesn't take full advantage of his talents." This is borne out by Alomar's notable pattern of performing very well in his first season with a new team, and less well as time goes on. Mets fans should take some hope from this, I guess. The second goes back to my earlier contention that spending a 1st round draft pick on a high school pitcher is a horrible idea. This morning I had breakfast with Robert Wussler, who ran the Atlanta Braves for several years in the early 1990s. I met Bob through a sequence of events that is worth telling all by itself - anyways, we discussed that topic, and he did point out that the Braves might be the only organization that has had success at doing that. He thinks it's because Maddux and Glavine give the Braves a core of good talent that lets them avoid rushing their pitching prospects. That seems reasonable to me. He also said that the common perception of Maddux - that his success is largely a product of how incredibly bright he is - is largely correct. So anyways, picking a HS pitcher w/ a first round draft pick is incredibly dumb - unless you're the Atlanta Braves. Anyways, how I met Wussler. It's too good a story not to tell. Says something (depressing) about my life, but anyways :-) Back in September I was just walking back from seeing a movie with a friend of mine. Now my friend has many virtues - she's very bright, an extraordinary athlete, one of the nicest people I've ever met, and so on. But, as a 23 year old straight male, I have to admit that one of the first ones I noticed about her is that she's gorgeous :-) So we were walking back and ran into a mutual friend who was talking to two people we didn't know - a man and woman. He introduced us to them - they were husband and wife. The man was extraordinarily friendly to me from the first moment we met. He and I met several times later, we really hit it off, and he ended up introducing me to Wussler. I finally asked him why he was so friendly to me when we first met - and after hemming and hawing a bit, he said, "Well, I saw the two of you, and I noticed that your date was really pretty. I saw you and I thought, gee, he doesn't look very impressive, and I wondered what your deal was and I figured I'd find out." :-) At least he was honest. He does have an ulterior motive to judge guys by that yardstick - his wife is, without question, the most beautiful woman I've ever met. I had to tell him that he was wrong - she's just one of my best friends, as her long-term boyfriend would no doubt want me to make clear... On to the NL West! Giants - all of these are sort of "I guess" picks. I wouldn't be surprised if the _best_ team in the West is going to win fewer than 90 games, and it won't be because the competition is all that great, either. The argument against the Giants is simple. They couldn't do it when Barry Bonds had the best season _ever_, including Babe Ruth, why should they be able to do it this year? It is presumably not likely that he will repeat last year's performance. The answer to that is, ummm, well, I don't have a good answer to that, actually. Plus Jeff Kent has an injury, plus JT Snow just isn't any good, plus their pitching staff is overworked. But everyone else in the West is worse. Baker still has enough "Dustiny" in his magic bag to get something out of the Giants, I'm guessing. Bonds is still the best player of his generation, and quite possibly the best player since Babe Ruth. They do have some pitching depth. Very little in the minors, but Brian Sabean does have a history of pulling things out of his hat, and Wussler told me this morning that he's incredibly bright. So I'm going with the Giants. Rockies - This is actually a guess pick. Jack Cust, whom the Rockies lifted from the Diamondbacks, is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball. Unfortunately, he can't play the field. He makes Ben Grieve look good in the outfield. So he needs to be in the AL, where he can play DH, the position God intended him to. The Rockies are, of course, in the NL. I'm putting the Rockies here on the assumption that they convert Cust into useful pitching talent. I know that were I the Orioles I'd happily trade both Scott Erickson _and_ Sidney Ponson for Cust, not that the O's are that smart. If the Rockies don't do this, they'll be lower. Their pitching isn't that bad, actually, it's just distorted by playing on Planet Coors. Last year, Coors Field inflated scoring by _47%_. I'm not sure what they play there, but it's not baseball. _47%_. Larry Walker is a Hall of Fame talent who tends to get injured too much. Todd Helton is quite good. The 2B they got from Oakland will be very good. Mike Hampton is supposedly stinking up the joint in Spring Training, but it's only Spring Training. Diamondbacks - This team will have no offense. I can't emphasize that enough. Luis Gonzalez can't possibly duplicate what he did last year, they have nothing else, and they stupidly keep Erubiel Durazo on the bench when he is the second best hitter on the team. It's absurd. Free Erubiel Durazo! Free Erubiel Durazo! Anyways...they also have nothing on the farm system. Basically the entire value of this franchise is contained in Curt Schilling's right arm and Randy Johnson's left. Both were grossly overworked last season. Johnson is just a freak of nature - there's no other explanation for him, he appears to simply be immune to overwork. Schilling's history does suggest some cause for concern. If either goes down with a catastrophic injury, move them down a bit on this list. Dodgers - Who says money determines wins in baseball? The Dodgers have more money than anyone but the Yankees, and they sure aren't winning. This team is still suffering from the Mike Piazza trade, plus the catastrophic (and brief) reign of Tommy Lasorda. The lesson of the Mike Piazza trade is simple. You have a player who can plausibly be described as the best at his position, _ever_. You have the financial resources to resign him. _Don't trade him_. You aren't going to get back what you give up. It won't happen. Don't trade him. They did. They suffer. Kazuhira Ishii will be very good, I'm quite confident, but he may take some time to adjust. They do have good pitching, assuming Kevin Brown comes back all the way. The problem will be their offense. Brian Jordan is better defensively than Gary Sheffield, but he's not even comparable as a hitter. Eric Karros at his best is a mediocre first baseman. Adrian Beltre is an unnatural talent, but he's not all the way yet. And so on. Good pitching, no offense. Padres - This is a team on the rise. They just extended the contract of their GM, Kevin Towers, for another six years. Before that contract is up this team will play in the WS. Not yet, though. Losing Rickey Henderson is going to cost them a bit. Rickey is amazing, and there is no team that could not benefit from signing him, just because he seems to teach the other players on the team how to work the count the way he does. The two best players on the Padres are Phil Nevin, who plays 3B, and Ryan Klesko, who plays 1B. They're bringing Sean Burroughs up from the minors, and he plays 3B. He's so good that they're moving _both_ Nevin and Klesko to make room for him. He doesn't have a lot of power yet, but he's the best hitter for average in the minors, and he's going to be something really special. Incidentally, he's just part of the wave of absurdly talented 3Bs who are coming to the Majors. Hank Blalock with the Rangers may force his way onto the team this year. Adrian Beltre in LA is incredible. Eric Chavez with Oakland. Pujols with St. Louis if they keep him at 3B, as they should. Troy Glaus with the Angels. Teixeira, also with the Rangers, will, if he converts from college, be anothre great 3B, except Blalock will probably make them move him to 1st. In a few years Scott Rolen is going to be nothing special, and maybe even Chipper as well. Not only are we living in the great age of shortstops, we're soon going to be in the great age of 3B as well. Amazing. Xavier Nady in the Padres system is okay too, but Burroughs will block him and they may have to move him to LF, where he may not hit enough. They should trade him to someone who could use him. Peavy and Tankersley are great pitching prospects. Hernandez will move Jimenez over to 2B, where he belongs. How's that for an infield of the future? 1B - Nevin. 2B - Jimenez. 3B - Burroughs. SS - Hernandez. Superb. They probably won't win anything this year or next year - if I were them I'd trade Trevor Hoffman - maybe the best closer in the game not named Mariano Rivera - for a great CF prospect and get ready to rock. Soon. Gautam
