25 Mar 2002, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Demanding that Arafat stops terrorism is therefore ridiculous: the
terrorists are not listening to him. It is not the Palestinian
Authority who does not want peace with Israel; the militant
fundamentelists of Hamas are the ones who do not want peace.
Suppose Sharon believes that Jeroen is right?
In that case, Sharon will believe that negotiating with Arafat is a
waste of time, since as Jeroen says, the terrorists are not listening
to Arafat.
To convey this understanding to others, especially to people outside
the Middle East, Sharon will:
* call on Arafat to control the terrorists
(In 1948, the then Israeli government attacked the forerunner of
Sharon's political party to prevent them from carrying out attacks
the government forbid. The Israeli government sank a ship that
was carrying guns. Doubtless, Sharon remembers this.)
* if terrorist attacks continue, the Sharon will say that Arafat is
unable to control the terrorists, because, as Jeroen says,
the terrorists are not listening to him.
* to prove this, since words alone don't appear to convince anyone,
Sharon will undertake actions that show that Arafat is weak and
politically irrelevant, such as occupying Arafat's headquarters.
Sharon will argue that the only people with whom his government
could usefully negotiate are the leaders of Hamas and other such
organizations, and the Western European and US pressure to
negotiate with Arafat is a waste of time.
Moreover, Sharon will argue that to defend the people who elected
him, his government must undertake defensive action, such as house
to house searches for weapons, even if it knows that these actions
are not likely to be very effective.
This is all based on the supposition that Sharon believes Jeroen.
Jeroen and others: this gives us two questions:
* Is it likely that Sharon believes Jeroen's assertion, that the
terrorists are not listening to Arafat?
* Indpendently of what Sharon believes, is Jeroen's assertion
correct?
(I know that the judgement has to reflect degrees of power and
influence and that my wording simplifies the question into a
yes/no dichotomy. As a practical threshhold, take as a measure
the ability of the then government of Israel to control Sharon's
predecessors: inability means that Jeroen's assertion is correct,
ability means it is wrong.)
--
Robert J. Chassell [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Rattlesnake Enterprises http://www.rattlesnake.com
