On Sun, Oct 27, 2002 at 11:42:23PM -0600, Dan Minette wrote: > Are you sure, > > at > > http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0004691.html > > I obtained the following historical trend > > 1989 7034.4 MWh > 1990 9379.2 MWh > 1991 9379.2 MWh > 1992 8793 MWh > 1993 9086.1 MWh > 1994 10551.6 MWh > 1995 9672.3 MWh > 1996 10258.5 MWh > 1997 9672.3 MWh > 1998 9086.1 MWh > 1999 13482.6 MWh > 2000 14948.1 MWh > 2001 17586 MWh > 2002 2931 MWh > > > 2002 is very low because it is just for the first quarter. However, there
That includes only "grid-connected" electricity, so I imagine it is an underestimate, since solar and wind should be more economical in remote locations far from the grid, right? Also, is wind energy generation steady from quarter to quarter, or is it higher, for example, in the spring and fall? In other words, is it valid to just multiply Q1 by 4 to get the annual value? And it DID double from 1998 to 2001, maybe that is what he was talking about? (although granted it doesn't really support the point he was making that your numbers were too far out of date) > Actually, yes. Let us look at solar costs from: > > http://www.solarbuzz.com/StatsCosts.htm > > A wonderful graph, showing a factor of 4 reduction in 17 years is given. > According to the graph, the costs were $6000 per kWp in 98, and to reduce > to about $4000 in 2001. But, in reality, the costs were $8000-$10000 per > kWp in 2001. So, the factor of 4 was really a factor of 2. Plus, they > give the month by month trend over the last 2 1/3 years elsewhere at the > website: showing a slight rise in prices over that time. I wonder if the title of that graph is wrong. Maybe it should be "module" prices rather than system prices? They quote for MODULES, $27/Wp in 1982 and the graph shows $19000 (per KWp ?) in 1984. If the graph really were system cost per KWp, than the $27/Wp for MODULES in 1982 corresponds to about $54,000 to $67,000 per KWp system cost in 1982, and the price dropped to $19,000 by 1984? That seems unlikely. Also, the text quotes $4/Wp module cost "today" (2001?), which corresponds to $4000/KWp, which is about what the graph shows. Strangely, the last actual data point on the graph looks like 1996, the rest is extrapolation? I don't think that graph is reliable, it seems to have mistakes and be out of date. -- "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
