I followed this thread to present, so I borrowed from
a couple of posts.

--- "John D. Giorgis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Well, Natural Family Planning is nearly as effective
> as the pill, and
> you'll have about a 75% chance of being able to have
> sex on your wedding
> night.... so there is an alterantive.   :)

Does it always have to be "science versus religion?"
:(

One of the co-inventors of "the Pill," John Rock, was
a Catholic obstetrician who thought that because a
woman was infertile when her progestin level was high,
that using the hormone was in fact a "natural" way to
provide birth control.

This 'New Yorker' article goes into detail about Dr.
Rock and 'his' team that devised an oral
contraceptive; it goes much further in discussing the
way that modern women have many more cycles than their
"primitive" counterparts (an interesting study about
the Dogon tribe in Africa), possibly resulting in
increased breast, ovarian and endometrial cancer. It
also compares Western women with Japanese women wrt
breast cancer rates. (long article)
http://www.gladwell.com/2000/2000_03_10_a_rock.htm

Doug already pointed out the inconsistancy of any form
of family planning if sex is only to be for
procreation:
"I'm also wondering, if it is true in the above
article that "...the conjugul act is destined
primarily by nature for the begetting of children,
those who in exercising it deliberately frustrate its
natural power and purpose sin against nature and
commit a deed which is shamefull and intrinsically
vicious" how is some "natural" method any better than
an artificial one being as it is every bit as
deliberate?"

Dan said, "So, the numbers you quote appear to me to
be for ideal cases and perfect use only." - see the
studies I cite below, particularly the last: "However,
it [ovulation method] is extremely unforgiving of
imperfect use, with a first-year probability of
failure of 84.2% if the method is not used correctly."


For poor/developing nations, where the ability to use
a more complex method (ovulation or symptothermal) is
more limited, a simple method that requires a woman to
have regular cycle of 26-32 days and abstain from sex
for 11 days of her cycle is available (Of course, that
means her husband must also abstain from sex for 11 of
~30 days - I'm not sure how realistic that is.):

http://www.newsflash.org/2002/06/si/si001263.htm
http://www.irh.org/pdf/nfpbook.pdf
The second site describes several NFP methods, and has
graphs/charts/diagrams etc.  Failure rates were not
given.  

I did a Medline search for "natural family planning"
AND (success OR failure) and found 19 articles, 10
from 1990 or later.
 
>From a 1999 European study reporting on 1328 women
aged between 19 and 45 years and willing to
participate for at least 12 cycles, symptothermal
method: 
"For the double-check methods, there was an unintended
pregnancy rate of 2.61% at the end of the first 12
cycles of use (standard error or SE 0.55%), a drop-out
rate for difficulties or dissatisfaction of 3.9% (SE
0.69%) and a lost-to-follow-up rate of 3.1% (SE
0.62%). In the single-check group, there was a total
of 13 unintended pregnancies at the end of the first
12 cycles of study participation, giving an unintended
pregnancy rate of 8.5% (SE 2.52%), a drop-out rate for
difficulties or dissatisfaction of 3.0% (SE 1.76%) and
a lost-to-follow-up rate of 23.4% (SE 4.35%). No
pregnancy was observed in women over 40 years of age.
Most pregnancies occurred because of deliberate
unprotected intercourse in the fertile phase ('user
failure')." 

>From a 2000 Italian review:
"Several studies in the past decade have shown the
efficacy of these methods and that the main cause of
failure was either a conscious departure from the
rules of the method or erroneous application of the
method. Another problem affecting natural family
planning that has been highlighted is the relatively
high discontinuation rate. These features are probably
due to low compliance in applying the natural family
planning rules, which may be too demanding for a
number of couples."

>From a 1997 Italian study:
"The main cause of lack of success seems to be the
misapplication of NFP rules, whereas the errors due to
the method itself are few. Furthermore, it seems that
the symptothermal method might give better results
than the ovulation method, even though no comparative
study has been carried out... Finally, it seems that
NFP is best suited for 'spacers' of pregnancies,
rather than for 'limiters'. Indeed, the former are
more likely to show good compliance, since the sexual
abstinence periods are limited and an unwanted
pregnancy is not regarded as a completely negative
event."

>From a 1996 Indian study:
"The Billings Ovulation Method based on single index
cervical mucus parameter is one such option. The
present multicentre trial conducted in India has shown
an encouraging use-effectiveness of the method,
indicating method failure as low as 1.5 +/- 0.3 and
use-failure 15.9 +/- 0.8 per 100 users at 21 months.
The method continuation rates have also been as high
as 88.3/100 users at 6 months and 52.0/100 users at 21
months."

In other words, there is *at least* a 48% drop-out
among users at under 2 years, but if one is able to
continue, pregnancy can be as low as 1.5/100 women.

>From a 1991 study:
"Reanalysis of data on the ovulation method of natural
family planning collected by the World Health
Organization yields the following conclusions. The
method is effective during perfect (correct and
consistent) use, with a first-year probability of
failure of 3.4%. However, it is extremely unforgiving
of imperfect use, with a first-year probability of
failure of 84.2% if the method is not used correctly.
During the initial year, 87% of the cycles were
characterized by perfect use. Nevertheless, the 13% of
cycles characterized by imperfect use had a tremendous
impact on the overall failure rate. During the first
year of typical use 22.5% of the women in the clinical
trial became accidentally pregnant."


And now, to get personal:
Many young women have extremely variable cycles; in my
twenties, mine varied irregularly from 24-72 days.  No
necklace of beads could deal with that.  

And, not to be indelicate, using any rhythm/ovulation
method will cut out 2 of the 4 or so days during her
cycle when the majority of women are...especially
receptive.  ;D  (While those other 'eager' days are
considered 'unclean' in many cultures...)

I have no problem with couples who choose to use NFP,
but to say that it is as effective as the Pill without
mentioning the absolute requirement for periodic
abstinence, lack of spontaniety, and virtual
elimination of those days when most women are, well,
extremely interested in sex is misleading.  To deny
the use of hormonal and barrier contraception for
women, subjecting them to a lifetime of 8 or more
pregnancies in a world already overpopulated, is
criminal.

Debbi

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