On Wed, Feb 05, 2003 at 10:59:41PM -0600, Dan Minette wrote: > If you want, John, I can do a Monte Carlo analysis on the probability > that random variations could have caused the difference between the > stock market performance under Republicans and Democrats.
I'm not John, but I would like to see those simulation results . Again from Siegel, here are some parameters that may be useful for such a simulation: A = entire 1946-2001 period B = entire 1926-2001 period C = entire 1802-2001 period A B C ----------------------------------------------------- 7.1% 6.9% 6.9% compounded (annualized) real return 8.6% 8.9% 8.4% arithmetic average of annual real returns 17.4% 20.3% 18.1% standard deviation of arithmetic returns Annual returns probably follow a log-normal distribution (i.e., the log of the returns is normally distributed) -- "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
