But does this really mean anything?  The current problems with the
economy can easily be blamed (and are, by Republicans) on real and
supposed excesses committed during the Clinton administration.  The
economic downturn during Nixon's presidency can be traced to social
unrest caused by aftereffects of the civil rights movement, Vietnam and
domestic unease with the Watergate revelations. 

A downturn that occurs during a specific party's term is not necessarily
an indication that that party's policies are at fault. 

Jon
GSV We called it "Sadistics" in college. :)


-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
On Behalf Of Erik Reuter
Sent: Wednesday, February 05, 2003 10:44 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Plus the NY Times Re: The Washington Post Editorial on Iraq

On Wed, Feb 05, 2003 at 10:31:54PM -0500, John D. Giorgis wrote:

> The 1990's represented an unprecedented economic phenomenon, and
> there appears to have been a 50-50 chance of it occuring underneath a
> Republican or Democratic President,

Over a longer period, from 1948 to 2001, the average annualized real US
stock market return was 11.25% during Democratic Presidential terms and
only 6.11% during Republican Presidential terms.[1]

+ 8.64 Truman
+13.42 Eisenhower
+13.88 Kennedy
+ 7.42 Johnson
- 6.93 Nixon
+ 9.27 Ford
+ 0.93 Carter
+10.26 Reagan
+ 9.81 Bush
+16.01 Clinton
-17.38 Bush, G.W. (through Dec 2001)

> or for that matter, a Republican or Democratic Congress.

I don't have data on Congress. Maybe Congress even has a stronger effect
on the market than the President, I don't know. But apparently the
market performance is not 50-50 based on party of the President over the
post WWII period.


[1] Jeremy Siegel, _Stocks for the Long Run_

-- 
"Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>       http://www.erikreuter.net/
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